QualityDipStocks / Energy · Oil & Gas Production
Precision Drilling PDS
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 9% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $137.66+41%
- Market Value
- —
- Off 52-wk high
- −9%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.19
52-week range 80% of the way from its 52-week low to its high
Price $97.69Fair value est. $137.66
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 4.5% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 2.5%; bull = 8.5% and 6.5% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, PDS’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 2% a year for five years; our estimate uses 4%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much PDS moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 3.1× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.19
- Volatility
- 40% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.06
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.08
How it ranks
Where PDS stands vs every one of the 2,467 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 2 of 4 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate41% · price below our base caseTop 25%of 1,507
- Free cash flow yield8.2% · free cash flow vs market capTop 18%of 1,690
- Dividends + buybacks yield0% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 1%of 2,227
- Revenue growth, last 12 months−3.1% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 8%of 2,184
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $137.66 · FCF value $203.52
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 4.5% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 4.5% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $8.00 a share (fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025, converted from CAD at 0.714), from the 40-F filed Mar 9, 2026. Net debt $429M, not deducted.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 31.5% in FY2023 from 19.5% in FY2021 (SEC filings).
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 8.2% (price / FCF 12.2×): $107M of free cash in the last 12 months.
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $137.66, 41% above the price (cyclical or peak cash flow, so treat with care).
ValuationPrice / book of 1.2×, below the 1.8× median for the 86 Energy companies we cover.
GrowthSales grew 4.5% a year over the last three fiscal years, above the −1.2% median for the 99 Energy companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 18 points in two fiscal years, to 0% in FY2025.
Cash returnsFree cash flow fell 44% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
ProfitabilityGross margin narrowed to 32.8% in FY2025 from 37.8% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%.
RiskCyclical business: one strong year of cash flow can make it look cheaper than it is.
All fundamentals
FCF yield 8.2% · ROE 0% · Sales −3%
Valuation
- P/E
- n/an/m: earnings near zero (P/E above 300)
- Price / FCF
- 12.2×
- FCF yield
- 8.2%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 0.99×
- Price / book
- 1.15×
- Market cap
- $1.3Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $1.3B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- −3.1%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +4.5%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $0.14
- EPS growth, last FY
- −98.2%
- Net income, 12 months
- $1M
- Net income growth
- −98%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 32.8%
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- 0.1%
- FCF margin
- 8.1%
- Return on equity
- 0%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $61M
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $107M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −44%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Dec 31, 2025; balance sheet at Dec 31, 2025. From Precision Drilling’s SEC filings, reported in CAD and converted to US dollars. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.1B · Sales +15%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield8.2%
- Free-cash-flow margin5%
- Gross margin30%
- Operating margin8%
- Return on invested capital7%
- Return on equity0%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+15%
- Net debt / EBITDA1.5×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $97.69
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$56.91−41.7%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$97.69you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$107.68+10.2%
- Fair value est.base case$137.66+40.9%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 58 · 5 days −1.1%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
PDS is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Precision Drilling in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 5:14 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Oil & Gas Production
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.