QualityDipStocks / Consumer Staples · Food Chains
Grocery Outlet GO
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 7% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, 11% over its Market Value. No fair value estimate for now: a capital-spending surge is squeezing its free cash flow.
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- $11.87price +11%
- Off 52-wk high
- −7%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.41
52-week range 88% of the way from its 52-week low to its high
Price $13.23Market Value $11.87
3 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Near its high
The price is 7% below its 52-week high (Nov 3), but the business held up: revenue +5.1%, free cash flow −$26M → $12M, turned positive, net cash (cash minus debt) −1.0% of market cap since the high.
Some numbers held up (revenue +5.1%, free cash flow −$26M → $12M, turned positive, net cash (cash minus debt) −1.0% of market cap since the high), others slipped (earnings per share turned to a loss, operating margin −8.8 pts, revenue growth rate −3.3 pts). The price is 7% below its 52-week high.
The price is 7% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: earnings per share turned to a loss, operating margin −8.8 pts, revenue growth rate −3.3 pts.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the low ($5.79, Mar 20) about 10%; today about 39%. The last 3 years delivered −24%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, −24%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $14.24Nov 3 | $5.79Mar 20 | $13.23 |
| Implied growth | n/a | +10% | +39% |
| P/E | 172.4× | n/a | n/a |
| P/FCF | — | 23.8× | 107.4× |
| EV/Sales | 0.4× | 0.2× | 0.4× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
Estimate unreliable for GO: free cash flow is squeezed by a capital-spending surge (capex is 93% of operating cash flow over the last 12 months, vs 56% in FY2023), so a DCF on today's free cash flow would understate the business. We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much GO moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 4.2× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.41
- Volatility
- 53% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.10
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.02
How it ranks
Where GO stands vs every one of the 2,467 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Not in the top quarter on any of these 4 measures
- Free cash flow yield0.9% · free cash flow vs market capLowest 24%of 1,690
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+5.1% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 31%of 2,184
- Operating margin−7.9% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 9%of 1,549
- Return on invested capital−24% · profit per dollar of capitalLowest 3%of 1,001
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
MV $11.87
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 3 of 5
GrowthSales grew 9.4% a year over the last three fiscal years, above the 2.3% median for the 75 Consumer Staples companies we cover.
GrowthSales grew 5.1% over the last 12 months, above the 2.3% median for the 73 Consumer Staples companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / book of 1.6×, below the 2.3× median for the 68 Consumer Staples companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityLost $381M over the last 12 months (net income, SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 29 points in two fiscal years, to -23% in FY2026.
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to −4.7% in FY2026 from 3.2% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityLoses money at the operating line: −8% operating margin over the last 12 months.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: no positive free cash flow; ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; net debt 8.7× EBITDA (limit 3×).
All fundamentals
FCF yield 0.9% · ROE -38% · Sales +5%
Valuation
- P/E
- n/aloss over the last 12 months
- Price / FCF
- 107.4×
- FCF yield
- 0.9%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/anegative EBITDA
- Price / sales
- 0.27×
- Price / book
- 1.59×
- Market cap
- $1.3Blisted
- Enterprise value
- $1.7B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $4.7B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +5.1%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +9.4%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- −$3.88
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- −$381M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 30.0%
- Operating margin
- −7.9%
- Net margin
- −8.0%
- FCF margin
- 0.3%
- Return on equity
- −38%
- Return on invested capital
- −24%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $74M
- Total debt
- $506M
- Net cash
- −$431M
- Debt / equity
- 0.62×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $12M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- n/ano dividend payments tagged
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +1.3%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $11M
Trailing 12 months to Jul 4, 2026; balance sheet at Jul 4, 2026. From Grocery Outlet’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $-0.0B · Sales +1%
- Free cash flow, 12 months−$0.0B
- Free-cash-flow yield0.9%
- Free-cash-flow margin−1%
- Gross margin30%
- Operating margin2%
- Return on invested capital3%
- Return on equity−38%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+1%
- Net debt / EBITDA8.8×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $13.23
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$5.79−56.2%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 12$11.87−10.3%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$13.23you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$14.24+7.6%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 61 · 5 days +1.3%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 10
- DateTue Nov 10, after the close
- Consensus EPS$0.11
- Year-ago EPS$0.21
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
GO is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Grocery Outlet in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 5:14 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Food Chains
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.