QualityDipStocks / Consumer Staples · Food Chains
Ingles Markets IMKTA
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 10% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $124.79+45%
- Market Value
- $84.74price +1%
- Off 52-wk high
- −10%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.06
52-week range 65% of the way from its 52-week low to its high
Price $85.86Fair value est. $124.79Market Value $84.74
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Near its high
The price is 10% below its 52-week high (Apr 9), but the business held up: free cash flow +21.5%, net cash (cash minus debt) +6.4% of market cap since the high, revenue growth rate +1.5 pts.
Some numbers held up (free cash flow +21.5%, net cash (cash minus debt) +6.4% of market cap since the high, revenue growth rate +1.5 pts), others slipped. The price is 10% below its 52-week high.
The price is 10% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
Data-based read, not advice.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, IMKTA’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 4% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much IMKTA moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 2.0× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.06
- Volatility
- 25% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.03
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.12
How it ranks
Where IMKTA stands vs every one of the 2,467 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 2 of 6 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate45% · price below our base caseTop 23%of 1,507
- Free cash flow yield9.2% · free cash flow vs market capTop 15%of 1,690
- Dividends + buybacks yield0.8% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 31%of 2,227
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+1% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 17%of 2,184
- Operating margin2.6% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 21%of 1,549
- Return on invested capital6.3% · profit per dollar of capitalLowest 36%of 1,001
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $124.79 · MV $84.74 · FCF value $174.40
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew -2.1% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $7.87 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 27, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 6, 2026.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $124.79, 45% above the price.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 9.2% (price / FCF 10.9×): $150M of free cash in the last 12 months.
ValuationP/E of 15.7× vs a 21.1× median for the 62 Consumer Staples companies we cover.
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 6.3×: modest for what the business earns before interest, tax and depreciation.
Balance sheetDebt / equity of 0.3×, below the 0.7× median for the 47 Consumer Staples companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 2.2% in FY2025 from 5.0% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 9 points in two fiscal years, to 5% in FY2025.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity is only 6% over the last 12 months.
GrowthSales shrank 2% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%.
All fundamentals
P/E 15.7 · FCF yield 9.2% · ROE 6%
Valuation
- P/E
- 15.7×Consumer Staples median 21.1×
- Price / FCF
- 10.9×
- FCF yield
- 9.2%
- EV / EBITDA
- 6.3×
- Price / sales
- 0.30×
- Price / book
- 0.97×
- Market cap
- $1.6Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $1.7B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $5.4B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +1.0%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −2.1%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- $104M
- Net income growth
- +84%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 24.5%
- Operating margin
- 2.6%
- Net margin
- 1.9%
- FCF margin
- 2.8%
- Return on equity
- 6%
- Return on invested capital
- 6%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $455M
- Total debt
- $501M
- Net cash
- −$45M
- Debt / equity
- 0.30×
- Interest coverage
- 7.7×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $150M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/an/m: free cash flow a year ago near zero
- Dividend yield
- 0.75%$12M paid
- Payout ratio
- 12%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Jun 27, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 27, 2026. From Ingles Markets’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.1B · Sales +2%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield9.2%
- Free-cash-flow margin2%
- Gross margin24%
- Operating margin2%
- Return on invested capital6%
- Return on equity6%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+2%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.3×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $85.86
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$68.55−20.2%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 6$84.74−1.3%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$85.86you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$95.23+10.9%
- Fair value est.base case$124.79+45.3%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 52 · 5 days −1.7%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
IMKTA is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Ingles Markets in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 5:14 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Food Chains
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.