QualityDipJC
Jim CramerOct 29 · TV
neutralCautious on Alphabet after disappointing results and mounting AI costs.
Stocks / Technology · Software & internet services
GOOGL
Alphabet GOOGL
$279.84−1.40% dayFri Oct 30 close
In a deep dip: 30% below its 52-week high.
A quality company. No fair value estimate for now: a capital-spending surge is squeezing its free cash flow.
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −30%
- Risk vs market
- Above marketbeta 1.38
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Drag across the chart to see any day
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $279.84
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$273.50−2.3%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$279.84you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$402.62+43.9%
Fair value estimate
Estimate unreliable for GOOGL: free cash flow is squeezed by a capital-spending surge (capex is 89% of operating cash flow over the last 12 months, vs 32% in FY2023), so a DCF on today's free cash flow would understate the business. We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much GOOGL moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Above market
Swings more than the market, and its own price swings are 2.6× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.38
- Volatility
- 34% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.52
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.47
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationP/E of 14.8× is 42% below its own average of 25.5× at the last 3 fiscal year-ends.
ValuationP/E of 14.8× vs a 33.9× median for the 138 Technology companies we cover.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 44% over the last 12 months, up 6 points in two years.
TechnicalA company that passes our quality screen, now 30% off its 52-week high (deep dip).
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Balance sheetDebt rose 278% to $49.1B from FY2023 to FY2025.
Cash returnsFree cash flow fell 73% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield is just 0.6% (price / FCF 177×), so the price leans on future growth.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 0.3%, below the 0.9% median for the 69 Technology companies we cover.
VoicesCathie Wood (Oct 1): “ARK sold 22,082 shares (Sep 22–Oct 1) across ARKQ,ARKX, per ARK's daily trade disclosures.” ARK daily trades (arkfunds.io)
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Alphabet in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Software & internet services
CompanyPrice1 yearvs fair valueP/EMkt cap
SPCXSpace Exploration Technologies$134.72−6.4%—n/an/a$1.95TMETAMeta Platforms$614.99−1.5%−8%n/a21.2×$1.60TAPPAppLovin$228.50−10.4%−63%+58%17.5×$85BNBISNebius Group$154.14−10.4%+24%n/an/a$47BBSPBending Spoons S.p.A.$45.52−2.7%—n/an/a$32BZMZoom Communications$95.50−2.2%+13%+10%8.8×$28BAll fundamentals
P/E 14.8 · FCF yield 0.6% · ROE 44%
Valuation
- P/E
- 14.8×3-yr-end avg 25.5× · Technology median 33.9×
- Price / FCF
- 176.7×
- FCF yield
- 0.6%
- EV / EBITDA
- 18.1×
- Price / sales
- 7.41×
- Price / book
- 5.15×
- Market cap
- $3.49Tlisted
- Enterprise value
- $3.35T
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $471B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +22.2%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +12.5%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $19.15
- EPS growth, last FY
- +34.5%
- Net income, 12 months
- $235B
- Net income growth
- +89%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 60.9%
- Operating margin
- 33.3%
- Net margin
- 49.9%
- FCF margin
- 4.2%
- Return on equity
- 44%
- Return on invested capital
- 24%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $265B
- Total debt
- $126B
- Net cash
- $139B
- Debt / equity
- 0.19×
- Interest coverage
- 51.0×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $19.7B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −73%
- Dividend yield
- 0.31%$10.7B paid
- Payout ratio
- 5%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $5.9B0.2% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- +1.4%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $30.4B
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Alphabet’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
Market ValueForming: thesis-changing filing on Oct 28, needs five trading days
forming
Fair value estimaten/a — free cash flow is squeezed by a capital-spending surge (capex is 89% of operating cash flow over the last 12 months, vs 32% in FY2023), so a DCF on today's free cash flow would understate the business
n/a
FCF valuen/a — capital spending is squeezing trailing free cash flow (see above)
n/a
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. We watch it daily for our three reversal signal rules while it sits in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 21 · 5 days −12.6%
$279.84now
52-wk low $273.50high $402.62
Off 52-wk high−30.5%
5 days−12.6%
vs 50-day avg−17.5%
vs 200-day avg−17.9%
RSI (14)21 oversold
Market cap$3.49T
The business
FCF $19.8B · Sales +25%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$19.8B
- Free-cash-flow yield0.6%
- Free-cash-flow margin4%
- Gross margin61%
- Operating margin33%
- Return on invested capital16%
- Return on equity45%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+25%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.3×
Investor buzz
3 from investors
Their view, not ours, and not advice. All buzz
CW
Cathie Wood (ARK Invest)Oct 1 · Fund trade
bearishARK sold 22,082 shares (Sep 22–Oct 1) across ARKQ,ARKX, per ARK's daily trade disclosures.
WB
Warren Buffett (Berkshire Hathaway)Aug 14 · 13F filing
bullish13F: increased stake 45%, Q2 2026 (54,249,798 → 78,791,167 shares, now 9.4% of the 13F portfolio). Quarterly filing, positions as of 2026-06-30.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when GOOGL fires a reversal signal
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