QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Automotive Aftermarket
The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company GT
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 58% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate, 17% under its Market Value.
Worth knowing
- Lowest price in 5 years of weekly closes
- FCF yield 15%, top 5% of the 1322 we measure
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $10.53+137%
- Market Value
- $5.32price −17%
- Off 52-wk high
- −58%
- Risk vs market
- Market-likebeta 0.99
52-week range 5% of the way from its 52-week low to its high
Price $4.44Fair value est. $10.53Market Value $5.32
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Mixed signals
The price is 58% below its 52-week high (Feb 6), but the business held up: free cash flow −$352M → $192M, turned positive, net cash (cash minus debt) +71.0% of market cap since the high, shares outstanding more shares, each owns less.
Some numbers held up (free cash flow −$352M → $192M, turned positive, net cash (cash minus debt) +71.0% of market cap since the high, shares outstanding more shares, each owns less), others slipped (revenue −3.4%). The price is 58% below its 52-week high.
The price is 58% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: revenue −3.4%.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 7 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$18.3B → $17.7B (−3.4%)changed
- Revenue growth rate−3.9% → −4.3% a year (−0.4 pts)held up
- Free cash flow, 12 months−$352M → $192M, turned positiveheld up
- Shares outstanding+0.3% (more shares, each owns less)held up
- Net cash (cash minus debt)+71.0% of market cap since the highheld up
- Stock vs its sector (Consumer Discretionary)stock −58%, sector median +3% since Feb 6changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −58%, revenue/EPS/FCF median −3% (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Sep 30, 2025) vs the latest filing (12 months to Jun 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the low ($4.15, Oct 19) about −13%; today about −12%. The last 3 years delivered −4%/yr (revenue).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, −4%/yr (revenue)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $10.54Feb 6 | $4.15Oct 19 | $4.44 |
| Implied growth | n/a | −13% | −12% |
| P/FCF | — | 6.2× | 6.7× |
| EV/Sales | 0.5× | 0.4× | 0.4× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, GT’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 12% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much GT moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves about in line with the market, and its own price swings are 3.7× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.99
- Volatility
- 47% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.27
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.17
How it ranks
Where GT stands vs every one of the 2,467 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 2 of 3 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate137% · price below our base caseTop 4%of 1,507
- Free cash flow yield15% · free cash flow vs market capTop 5%of 1,690
- Revenue growth, last 12 months−4.3% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 7%of 2,184
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $10.53 · MV $5.32 · FCF value $42.69
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew -4.2% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $0.66 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 6, 2026. Net debt $6.1B, not deducted.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 15.0% (price / FCF 6.7×): $192M of free cash in the last 12 months.
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $10.53, 137% above the price (cyclical or peak cash flow, so treat with care).
ValuationPrice / book of 0.5×, below the 3.0× median for the 413 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ValuationTrades 16.6% below its Market Value of $5.32, the average price paid since the Aug 5 filing.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityLost $2.5B over the last 12 months (net income, SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 38 points in two fiscal years, to -53% in FY2025.
Balance sheetNet debt of $6.1B, 473% of the market cap (Jun 30, 2026).
GrowthSales shrank 4% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; sales down vs the year-ago quarter; net debt 7.5× EBITDA (limit 3×).
All fundamentals
FCF yield 15.0% · ROE -64% · Sales −4%
Valuation
- P/E
- n/aloss over the last 12 months
- Price / FCF
- 6.7×
- FCF yield
- 15.0%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 0.07×
- Price / book
- 0.45×
- Market cap
- $1.3Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $7.4B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $17.7B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- −4.3%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −4.2%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- −$8.83
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- −$2.5B
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 18.3%
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- −14.4%
- FCF margin
- 1.1%
- Return on equity
- −64%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $861M
- Total debt
- $6.9B
- Net cash
- −$6.1B
- Debt / equity
- 2.44×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $192M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- n/ano dividend payments tagged
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- −0.3%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $24M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.5B · Sales −5%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.5B
- Free-cash-flow yield15.0%
- Free-cash-flow margin3%
- Gross margin18%
- Operating margin−1%
- Return on invested capital−1%
- Return on equity−62%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)−5%
- Net debt / EBITDA7.5×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $4.44
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$4.15−6.5%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$4.44you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 5$5.32+19.8%
- Fair value est.base case$10.53+137.1%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$10.54+137.4%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 43 · 5 days +3.0%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 4
- DateWed Nov 4, after the close
- Consensus EPS$0
- Year-ago EPS$0.28
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
GT is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 5:14 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Automotive Aftermarket
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.