QualityDipStocks / Industrials · Industrial machinery
Hayward HAYW
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 3% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $11.80−30%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −3%
- Risk vs market
- Market-likebeta 0.95
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Near its high
The price is 3% below its 52-week high (Jun 30), but the business held up: free cash flow +99.3%, shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more, net cash (cash minus debt) +6.7% of market cap since the high.
Some numbers held up (free cash flow +99.3%, shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more, net cash (cash minus debt) +6.7% of market cap since the high), others slipped. The price is 3% below its 52-week high.
The price is 3% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($17.31, Jun 30) the price assumed about 23%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($11.35, Oct 9) about −2%; today about 9%. The last 3 years delivered 38%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 38%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $17.31Jun 30 | $11.35Oct 9 | $16.81 |
| Implied growth | +23% | −2% | +9% |
| P/E | 24.0× | 15.5× | 21.4× |
| P/FCF | 47.6× | 12.2× | 22.6× |
| EV/Sales | 4.0× | 2.6× | 3.5× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, HAYW’s free cash flow would need to grow about 9% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much HAYW moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves about in line with the market, and its own price swings are 2.7× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.95
- Volatility
- 35% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.35
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.24
How it ranks
Where HAYW stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 1 of 6 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate30% · price above our base caseLowest 27%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield4.4% · free cash flow vs market capTop 46%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield3.3% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 43%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+7.6% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 41%of 1,814
- Operating margin22% · of sales kept as operating profitTop 24%of 1,288
- Return on invested capital10% · profit per dollar of capitalLowest 49%of 838
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $11.80 · FCF value $15.61
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew -5.1% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $0.74 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 26, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 28, 2026.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 26% to $0.68 in FY2025.
ProfitabilityGross margin widened to 48.0% in FY2025 from 43.3% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Cash returnsShare count down 2.6% in a year: $120M of buybacks over 12 months.
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 20.8% in FY2025 from 17.7% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $11.80, 30% below the price.
GrowthSales shrank 5% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
GrowthSales grew 7.6% over the last 12 months, below the 9.4% median for the 256 Industrials companies we cover.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%.
TechnicalRSI(14) of 86: overbought after a strong run.
All fundamentals
P/E 21.4 · FCF yield 4.4% · ROE 11%
Valuation
- P/E
- 21.4×Industrials median 26.5×
- Price / FCF
- 22.6×
- FCF yield
- 4.4%
- EV / EBITDA
- 14.7×
- Price / sales
- 3.08×
- Price / book
- 2.29×
- Market cap
- $3.6Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $4.1B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $1.2B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +7.6%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −5.1%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $0.77
- EPS growth, last FY
- +25.9%
- Net income, 12 months
- $170M
- Net income growth
- +23%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 48.0%
- Operating margin
- 21.6%
- Net margin
- 14.4%
- FCF margin
- 13.6%
- Return on equity
- 11%
- Return on invested capital
- 10%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $475M
- Total debt
- $956M
- Net cash
- −$481M
- Debt / equity
- 0.60×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $161M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −17%
- Dividend yield
- n/ano dividend payments tagged
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $120M3.3% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −2.6%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $15M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 26, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 26, 2026. From Hayward’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.1B · Sales +6%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield4.4%
- Free-cash-flow margin11%
- Gross margin48%
- Operating margin19%
- Return on invested capital9%
- Return on equity11%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+6%
- Net debt / EBITDA1.7×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $16.81
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$11.35−32.5%
- Fair value est.base case$11.80−29.8%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$16.81you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$17.31+3.0%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 86 · 5 days +31.1%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
HAYW is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Hayward in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Industrial machinery
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.