Stocks / Consumer Discretionary · Electronics retail
In a deep dip: 46% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading below our fair value estimate, 3% under its Market Value.
5 bullish · 4 bearish See why
Every level vs today’s $62.08
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 12.6% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 10.6%; bull = 8.5% and 14.6% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, NFLX’s free cash flow would need to grow about 10% a year for five years; our estimate uses 13%.
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much NFLX moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 2.8× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
ValuationP/E of 17.6× is 57% below its own average of 40.9× at the last 3 fiscal year-ends.
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $73.54, 18% above the price.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 53% over the last 12 months, up 15 points in two years.
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 29.5% in FY2025 from 20.6% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
TechnicalA company that passes our quality screen, now 46% off its 52-week high (deep dip).
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 16.8×, above the 12.8× median for the 113 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / book of 8.9×, above the 4.9× median for the 151 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 4.4%, below the 4.9% median for the 169 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
VoicesJim Cramer (Oct 29): ““This stock can't lift. ... You used to be able to say, 'Hey, you seen that movie?' 'Yeah, I'm gonna go buy Netflix.' People don't do…” CNBC Mad Money (lightning round)
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Netflix in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Closest in size in Consumer Discretionary
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Netflix’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Assumes 12.6% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 12.6% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $2.71 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 21, 2026. Net debt $6.9B, not deducted.
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. We watch it daily for our three reversal signal rules while it sits in a dip.
Their view, not ours, and not advice. All buzz
“This stock can't lift. ... You used to be able to say, 'Hey, you seen that movie?' 'Yeah, I'm gonna go buy Netflix.' People don't do that anymore. But you know why? Because they don't even know if it's on Netflix. Maybe it's on Amazon. Maybe it's on HBO....”
Viewed the quarter favorably and called content-library worries overblown; at 18x earnings it trades at "one of the lowest valuations in history."
ARK bought 18,783 shares (Oct 21) across ARKW, per ARK's daily trade disclosures.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
One text when a published rule fires on NFLX or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
QualityDip