QualityDipStocks / Health Care · Other Pharmaceuticals
Herbalife HLF
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 33% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, 6% over its Market Value. No fair value estimate for now: the model’s result is too extreme to stand behind.
Worth knowing
- FCF yield 24%, top 1% of the 1322 we measure
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- $12.49price +6%
- Off 52-wk high
- −33%
- Risk vs market
- Above marketbeta 1.11
52-week range 44% of the way from its 52-week low to its high
Price $13.28Market Value $12.49
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 33% below its 52-week high (Feb 20), but the business held up: revenue growth rate +5.5 pts, free cash flow +33.3%, net cash (cash minus debt) +8.4% of market cap since the high.
Some numbers held up (revenue growth rate +5.5 pts, free cash flow +33.3%, net cash (cash minus debt) +8.4% of market cap since the high), others slipped (earnings per share −24.0%, shares outstanding more shares, each owns less). The price is 33% below its 52-week high.
The price is 33% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: earnings per share −24.0%, shares outstanding more shares, each owns less.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 10 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$5.0B → $5.3B (+4.8%)held up
- Revenue growth rate+0.9% → +6.4% a year (+5.5 pts)held up
- Earnings per share, 12 months$2.20 → $1.68 (−24.0%)changed
- Free cash flow, 12 months$253M → $337M (+33.3%)held up
- Operating margin9.5% → 9.6% (0.0 pts)held up
- Shares outstanding+3.6% (more shares, each owns less)changed
- Net cash (cash minus debt)+8.4% of market cap since the highheld up
- Stock vs its sector (Health Care)stock −33%, sector median +13% since Feb 20changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −33%, revenue/EPS/FCF median +5% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 8.2× at the high → 4.2× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Dec 31, 2025) vs the latest filing (12 months to Sep 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($19.96, Feb 20) the price assumed about −9%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($7.98, Nov 4) about −18%; today about −20%. The last 3 years delivered 9%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 9%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $19.96Feb 20 | $7.98Nov 4 | $13.28 |
| Implied growth | −9% | −18% | −20% |
| P/E | 9.1× | 2.5× | 7.9× |
| P/FCF | 8.2× | 4.8× | 4.2× |
| EV/Sales | 0.7× | 0.5× | 0.6× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
Estimate unreliable for HLF: the model gives 275% above the price, more than we can stand behind (usually peak-cycle cash flow, heavy debt, or cash flows that include customer or loan balances). We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, HLF’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 20% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much HLF moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings more than the market, and its own price swings are 4.7× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.11
- Volatility
- 59% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.24
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.12
How it ranks
Where HLF stands vs every one of the 2,467 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 2 of 5 measures
- Free cash flow yield24% · free cash flow vs market capTop 2%of 1,690
- Dividends + buybacks yield0.7% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 30%of 2,227
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+6.4% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 36%of 2,184
- Operating margin9.6% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 46%of 1,549
- Return on invested capital33% · profit per dollar of capitalTop 9%of 1,001
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
MV $12.49 · FCF value $75.89
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 23.7% (price / FCF 4.2×): $337M of free cash in the last 12 months.
ValuationP/E of 7.9× vs a 28.9× median for the 161 Health Care companies we cover.
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 55% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 4.7×: modest for what the business earns before interest, tax and depreciation.
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 33%, above the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Balance sheetNet debt of $1.5B, 107% of the market cap (Sep 30, 2026).
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only 2.9× over the last 12 months.
Cash returnsShare count up 3.2% in a year: existing holders are being diluted.
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 12% to $2.20 in FY2025.
ValuationTrades 6.3% above its Market Value of $12.49, the average price paid since the Aug 5 filing.
All fundamentals
P/E 7.9 · FCF yield 23.7% · Sales +6%
Valuation
- P/E
- 7.9×Health Care median 28.9×
- Price / FCF
- 4.2×
- FCF yield
- 23.7%
- EV / EBITDA
- 4.7×
- Price / sales
- 0.27×
- Price / book
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Market cap
- $1.4Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $2.9B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $5.3B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +6.4%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −1.1%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $1.70
- EPS growth, last FY
- −12.0%
- Net income, 12 months
- $180M
- Net income growth
- −44%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 77.6%
- Operating margin
- 9.6%
- Net margin
- 3.4%
- FCF margin
- 6.4%
- Return on equity
- n/anegative shareholder equity
- Return on invested capital
- 33%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $409M
- Total debt
- $1.9B
- Net cash
- −$1.5B
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 2.9×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $337M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +55%
- Dividend yield
- n/ano dividend payments tagged
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $10M0.7% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- +3.2%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $40M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Herbalife’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.3B · Sales +5%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.3B
- Free-cash-flow yield23.7%
- Free-cash-flow margin6%
- Gross margin78%
- Operating margin10%
- Return on invested capital31%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+5%
- Net debt / EBITDA2.9×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $13.28
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$7.98−39.9%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 5$12.49−5.9%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$13.28you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$19.96+50.3%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 51 · 5 days 0.0%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
HLF is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Herbalife in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 5:14 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Other Pharmaceuticals
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.