QualityDipStocks / Technology · Communications equipment
Harmonic HLIT
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 40% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, 11% under its Market Value. No fair value estimate for now: its free cash flow is near zero.
Worth knowing
- Down 42% from its 52-week high while revenue grew 11%
- Net cash = 11% of its market cap
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- $11.47price −11%
- Off 52-wk high
- −40%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 2.03
52-week range 16% of the way from its 52-week low to its high
Price $10.19Market Value $11.47
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 40% below its 52-week high (May 27), but the business held up: revenue +11.7%, revenue growth rate +23.1 pts, operating margin +4.8 pts.
Some numbers held up (revenue +11.7%, revenue growth rate +23.1 pts, operating margin +4.8 pts), others slipped (free cash flow −97.0%). The price is 40% below its 52-week high.
The price is 40% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: free cash flow −97.0%.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 9 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$397M → $444M (+11.7%)held up
- Revenue growth rate−11.9% → +11.2% a year (+23.1 pts)held up
- Free cash flow, 12 months$45M → $1M (−97.0%)changed
- Operating margin6.9% → 11.7% (+4.8 pts)held up
- Shares outstanding−0.8% (fewer shares, each owns more)held up
- Net cash (cash minus debt)+11.1% of market cap since the highheld up
- Stock vs its sector (Technology)stock −40%, sector median 0% since May 27changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −40%, revenue/EPS/FCF median −43% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 41.6× at the high → 807.0× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Apr 3, 2026) vs the latest filing (12 months to Jul 3, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($17.11, May 27) the price assumed about 21%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($8.85, Nov 20) about −10%. The last 3 years delivered −17%/yr (revenue).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, −17%/yr (revenue)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $17.11May 27 | $8.85Nov 20 | $10.19 |
| Implied growth | +21% | −10% | over 80% |
| P/E | n/a | 20.2× | n/a |
| P/FCF | 41.6× | 7.5× | 807.0× |
| EV/Sales | 4.8× | 1.6× | 2.2× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
No estimate for HLIT: free cash flow is barely positive ($0.01 a share); a DCF says little. We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much HLIT moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 4.1× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 2.03
- Volatility
- 53% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.49
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.55
How it ranks
Where HLIT stands vs every one of the 2,467 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 1 of 5 measures
- Free cash flow yield0.1% · free cash flow vs market capLowest 21%of 1,690
- Dividends + buybacks yield6.4% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 17%of 2,227
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+11% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 44%of 2,184
- Operating margin12% · of sales kept as operating profitTop 47%of 1,549
- Return on invested capital14% · profit per dollar of capitalTop 33%of 1,001
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
MV $11.47
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
Balance sheetNet cash of $121M: cash and short-term investments exceed debt (Jul 3, 2026).
Cash returnsShare count down 3.3% in a year: $72M of buybacks over 12 months.
GrowthSales grew 11% to $444M over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ValuationPrice / book of 3.1×, below the 5.0× median for the 312 Technology companies we cover.
ValuationTrades 11.1% below its Market Value of $11.47, the average price paid since the Aug 12 filing.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityLost $47M over the last 12 months (net income, SEC filings).
GrowthSales shrank 17% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 31 points in two fiscal years, to -11% in FY2025.
Cash returnsFree cash flow fell 99% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield is just 0.1%.
All fundamentals
FCF yield 0.1% · ROE -12% · Sales +11%
Valuation
- P/E
- n/aloss over the last 12 months
- Price / FCF
- n/an/m: free cash flow near zero
- FCF yield
- 0.1%
- EV / EBITDA
- 15.9×
- Price / sales
- 2.52×
- Price / book
- 3.10×
- Market cap
- $1.1Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $996M
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $444M
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +11.2%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −16.8%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- −$0.41
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- −$47M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 50.0%
- Operating margin
- 11.7%
- Net margin
- −10.6%
- FCF margin
- 0.3%
- Return on equity
- −12%
- Return on invested capital
- 14%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $232M
- Total debt
- $111M
- Net cash
- $121M
- Debt / equity
- 0.31×
- Interest coverage
- 14.6×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $1M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −99%
- Dividend yield
- n/ano dividend payments tagged
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $72M6.4% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −3.3%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $37M
Trailing 12 months to Jul 3, 2026; balance sheet at Jul 3, 2026. From Harmonic’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.0B · Sales +54%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.0B
- Gross margin50%
- Operating margin18%
- Return on invested capital23%
- Return on equity6%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+54%
- Net debt / EBITDA−1.6×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $10.19
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$8.85−13.2%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$10.19you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 12$11.47+12.6%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$17.11+67.9%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 42 · 5 days −0.1%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
HLIT is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Harmonic in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 5:14 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Communications equipment
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.