QualityDipStocks / Technology · Communications equipment
Vistance Networks VISN
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 68% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading near our fair value estimate, 17% under its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $5.89−10%
- Market Value
- $7.84price −17%
- Off 52-wk high
- −68%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 1.79
52-week range 5% of the way from its 52-week low to its high
Price $6.51Fair value est. $5.89Market Value $7.84
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Repricing: business changed
The price is 68% below its 52-week high (Dec 11), but the business held up: earnings per share +893.9%, shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more, net cash (cash minus debt) +437.8% of market cap since the high.
Some numbers held up (earnings per share +893.9%, shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more, net cash (cash minus debt) +437.8% of market cap since the high), others slipped (revenue −62.4%, free cash flow −67.5%, operating margin −11.8 pts). The price is 68% below its 52-week high.
The price is 68% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: revenue −62.4%, free cash flow −67.5%, operating margin −11.8 pts.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 9 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$5.3B → $2.0B (−62.4%)changed
- Earnings per share, 12 months$3.11 → $30.89 (+893.9%)held up
- Free cash flow, 12 months$268M → $87M (−67.5%)changed
- Operating margin14.9% → 3.1% (−11.8 pts)changed
- Shares outstanding−15.8% (fewer shares, each owns more)held up
- Net cash (cash minus debt)+437.8% of market cap since the highheld up
- Stock vs its sector (Technology)stock −68%, sector median +4% since Dec 11changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −68%, revenue/EPS/FCF median −62% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 21.3× at the high → 17.5× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Sep 30, 2025) vs the latest filing (12 months to Jun 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($20.55, Dec 11) the price assumed about 8%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($5.80, Oct 16) about 3%; today about 5%. The last 3 years delivered 42%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 42%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $20.55Dec 11 | $5.80Oct 16 | $6.51 |
| Implied growth | +8% | +3% | +5% |
| P/E | 6.6× | 0.2× | 0.2× |
| P/FCF | 21.3× | 15.6× | 17.5× |
| EV/Sales | 2.3× | 0.6× | 0.7× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, VISN’s free cash flow would need to grow about 5% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much VISN moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 6.5× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.79
- Volatility
- 83% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.27
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.29
How it ranks
Where VISN stands vs every one of the 2,467 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Not in the top quarter on any of these 4 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate10% · price above our base caseLowest 46%of 1,507
- Free cash flow yield5.7% · free cash flow vs market capTop 34%of 1,690
- Operating margin3.1% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 23%of 1,549
- Return on invested capital1.7% · profit per dollar of capitalLowest 15%of 1,001
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $5.89 · MV $7.84 · FCF value $1.08
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew -30.6% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $0.37 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 6, 2026. Net cash $114M, not added.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 2.5% in FY2025 from −35.4% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ValuationP/E of 0.2× vs a 33.2× median for the 254 Technology companies we cover.
Balance sheetNet cash of $114M: cash and short-term investments exceed debt (Jun 30, 2026).
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 5.7% (price / FCF 17.5×): $87M of free cash in the last 12 months.
ValuationTrades 17.0% below its Market Value of $7.84, the average price paid since the Aug 6 filing.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Cash returnsFree cash flow fell 65% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
Cash returnsShare count up 7.2% in a year: existing holders are being diluted.
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 2%, below the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; sales down vs the year-ago quarter.
RiskReports earnings Nov 5 (consensus EPS $0.12): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
All fundamentals
P/E 0.2 · FCF yield 5.7%
Valuation
- P/E
- 0.2×Technology median 33.2×
- Price / FCF
- 17.5×
- FCF yield
- 5.7%
- EV / EBITDA
- 5.7×
- Price / sales
- n/aneeds total revenue: the SEC revenue tag covers only part of this company's revenue (it is under 1.5x net income)
- Price / book
- 0.61×
- Market cap
- $1.5Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $1.4B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- n/athe SEC revenue tag covers only part of this company's revenue (it is under 1.5x net income)
- Sales growth, 12 months
- n/aneeds total revenue: the SEC revenue tag covers only part of this company's revenue (it is under 1.5x net income)
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- n/aneeds total revenue: the SEC revenue tag covers only part of this company's revenue (it is under 1.5x net income)
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $31.42
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- $7.2B
- Net income growth
- n/an/m: earnings a year ago near zero
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 47.0%
- Operating margin
- 3.1%
- Net margin
- n/aneeds total revenue: the SEC revenue tag covers only part of this company's revenue (it is under 1.5x net income)
- FCF margin
- 4.4%
- Return on equity
- n/an/m: very small or negative equity
- Return on invested capital
- 2%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $114M
- Total debt
- $0
- Net cash
- $114M
- Debt / equity
- 0.00×
- Interest coverage
- n/ano debt
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $87M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −65%
- Dividend yield
- n/ano dividend payments tagged
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +7.2%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $42M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Vistance Networks’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.0B · Sales −1%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.0B
- Free-cash-flow yield5.7%
- Free-cash-flow margin0%
- Gross margin47%
- Operating margin2%
- Return on invested capital1%
- Return on equity4%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)−1%
- Net debt / EBITDA−0.2×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $6.51
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$5.80−10.9%
- Fair value est.base case$5.89−9.5%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$6.51you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 6$7.84+20.4%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$20.55+215.7%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 52 · 5 days +3.5%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 5
- DateThu Nov 5, before the open
- Consensus EPS$0.12
- Year-ago EPS$0.59
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
VISN is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Vistance Networks in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 5:14 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Communications equipment
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.