QualityDipStocks / Finance · Property-Casualty Insurers
Horace Mann Educators HMN
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 12% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $37.61−21%
- Market Value
- $48.31price −1%
- Off 52-wk high
- −12%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.16
52-week range 50% of the way from its 52-week low to its high
Price $47.78Fair value est. $37.61Market Value $48.31
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 12% below its 52-week high (Jul 6), but the business held up: shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more, earnings per share +9.2%, revenue growth rate +0.4 pts.
Some numbers held up (shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more, earnings per share +9.2%, revenue growth rate +0.4 pts), others slipped. The price is 12% below its 52-week high.
The price is 12% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 7 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$1.7B → $1.7B (+1.9%)held up
- Revenue growth rate+5.5% → +5.9% a year (+0.4 pts)held up
- Earnings per share, 12 months$4.01 → $4.38 (+9.2%)held up
- Shares outstanding−1.7% (fewer shares, each owns more)held up
- Stock vs its sector (Finance)stock −12%, sector median −2% since Jul 6held up
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −12%, revenue/EPS/FCF median +6% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/E 13.5× at the high → 10.9× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Mar 31, 2026) vs the latest filing (12 months to Jun 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
52-wk high: P/E 13.5×; 52-wk low: P/E 10.6×; now: P/E 10.9×.
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $54.12Jul 6 | $41.49Mar 20 | $47.78 |
| P/E | 13.5× | 10.6× | 10.9× |
What this means: a lower P/E than at the high means you pay less for each dollar of profit than buyers did then.
How it’s computed
Banks, insurers and lenders: cash flow includes deposits and loans, so a cash-flow model doesn't fit; we show P/E at each point instead. P/E = that day's close × diluted shares / 12-month net income, using only the filings that were public on that day.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Financials model (residual income). Same residual-income model as the base: cost of equity 9.5% ±1 point and return on equity 9.6% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 7.6%; bull = 8.5% and 11.6%. A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, HMN would need a return on equity of about 12% a year; our estimate uses 10%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much HMN moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 1.6× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.16
- Volatility
- 21% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.10
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.23
How it ranks
Where HMN stands vs every one of the 2,467 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Not in the top quarter on any of these 3 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate21% · price above our base caseLowest 33%of 1,507
- Dividends + buybacks yield3% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 46%of 2,227
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+5.9% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 34%of 2,184
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $37.61 · MV $48.31
Financials model (residual income): book value $37.11 a share on Jun 30, 2026, plus the earnings above a 9.5% cost of equity. ROE 9.6%, the average of 12.4% for the trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026 and 6.8% over fiscal 2021–2025, on average common equity; payout 32% of earnings (dividends 32%), so book grows by the retained rest; the return above 9.5% fades halfway toward 9.5% over 10 years, then grows at 3% (terminal value). From the 10-Q filed Aug 7, 2026.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 57% to $3.90 in FY2025.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 3.0% ($58M paid over 12 months, 32% of earnings).
ValuationP/E of 10.9×, below the 13.3× median for the 364 Finance companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / book of 1.3×, below the 1.6× median for the 368 Finance companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur residual-income fair value estimate is $37.61, 21% below the price.
GrowthSales grew 5.9% over the last 12 months, below the 12% median for the 352 Finance companies we cover.
ProfitabilityNet margin of 10%, below the 22% median for the 350 Finance companies we cover.
GrowthSales grew 7.2% a year over the last three fiscal years, below the 9.2% median for the 356 Finance companies we cover.
RiskReports earnings Nov 3 (consensus EPS $0.99): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
All fundamentals
P/E 10.9 · ROE 12% · Sales +6%
Valuation
- P/E
- 10.9×Finance median 13.3×
- Price / FCF
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for an insurer
- FCF yield
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for an insurer
- EV / EBITDA
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
- Price / sales
- 1.11×
- Price / book
- 1.29×
- Market cap
- $1.9Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $2.5B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $1.7B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +5.9%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +7.2%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $4.28
- EPS growth, last FY
- +57.3%
- Net income, 12 months
- $177M
- Net income growth
- +27%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- 10.2%
- FCF margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on equity
- 12%
- Return on invested capital
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $46M
- Total debt
- $594M
- Net cash
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
- Debt / equity
- n/adeposits/float make debt/equity not comparable for an insurer
- Interest coverage
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 2.98%$58M paid
- Payout ratio
- 32%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- −1.0%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $10M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Horace Mann Educators’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.2B · Sales +8%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.2B
- Free-cash-flow yield11.6%
- Return on equity12%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+8%
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $47.78
- Fair value est.base case$37.61−21.3%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$41.49−13.2%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$47.78you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 5$48.31+1.1%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$54.12+13.3%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 59 · 5 days +2.8%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 3
- DateTue Nov 3, after the close
- Consensus EPS$0.99
- Year-ago EPS$1.36
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
HMN is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Horace Mann Educators in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 5:14 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Property-Casualty Insurers
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.