QualityDipStocks / Energy · Oil & Gas Production
HighPeak Energy HPK
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 25% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, 14% under its Market Value. No fair value estimate for now: its free cash flow is negative.
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- $10.14price −14%
- Off 52-wk high
- −25%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.43
52-week range 62% of the way from its 52-week low to its high
Price $8.67Market Value $10.14
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 25% below its 52-week high (Oct 23), but the business held up: net cash (cash minus debt) 0.0% of market cap since the high, shares outstanding more shares, each owns less, operating margin 0.0 pts.
Some numbers held up (net cash (cash minus debt) 0.0% of market cap since the high, shares outstanding more shares, each owns less, operating margin 0.0 pts), others slipped. The price is 25% below its 52-week high.
The price is 25% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 6 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$863M → $863M (0.0%)about the same
- Operating margin15.3% → 15.3% (0.0 pts)held up
- Shares outstanding+0.4% (more shares, each owns less)held up
- Net cash (cash minus debt)0.0% of market cap since the highheld up
- Stock vs its sector (Energy)stock −25%, sector median −4% since Oct 23changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −25%, revenue/EPS/FCF median 0% (shown, not scored)
No new report since the high (Oct 23, 2026): the business numbers are the same as then, so this read is capped at 65. Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the low ($3.89, Jan 22) about 22%. The last 3 years delivered 5%/yr (revenue).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 5%/yr (revenue)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $11.57Oct 23 | $3.89Jan 22 | $8.67 |
| Implied growth | n/a | +22% | n/a |
| P/E | n/a | 10.1× | n/a |
| P/FCF | — | 44.3× | — |
| EV/Sales | 2.9× | 1.7× | 2.5× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
No estimate for HPK: negative free cash flow. We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much HPK moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 6.4× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.43
- Volatility
- 82% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.07
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.04
How it ranks
Where HPK stands vs every one of the 2,467 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Not in the top quarter on any of these 5 measures
- Free cash flow yield−0.2% · free cash flow vs market capLowest 20%of 1,690
- Dividends + buybacks yield1% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 33%of 2,227
- Revenue growth, last 12 months−17% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 2%of 2,184
- Operating margin15% · of sales kept as operating profitTop 36%of 1,549
- Return on invested capital4% · profit per dollar of capitalLowest 23%of 1,001
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
MV $10.14 · FCF value $13.79
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 3.8×: modest for what the business earns before interest, tax and depreciation.
ValuationPrice / book of 0.7×, below the 1.8× median for the 86 Energy companies we cover.
GrowthSales grew 4.5% a year over the last three fiscal years, above the −1.2% median for the 99 Energy companies we cover.
ValuationTrades 14.5% below its Market Value of $10.14, the average price paid since the Oct 6 filing.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree cash flow is negative (−$2M over the last 12 months), so there’s no cash-flow value under the price.
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 17.4% in FY2025 from 37.7% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 79% to $0.14 in FY2025.
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only 0.9× over the last 12 months.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%.
All fundamentals
FCF yield -0.2% · ROE -5% · Sales −17%
Valuation
- P/E
- n/aloss over the last 12 months
- Price / FCF
- n/anegative free cash flow
- FCF yield
- −0.2%
- EV / EBITDA
- 3.8×
- Price / sales
- 1.27×
- Price / book
- 0.71×
- Market cap
- $1.1Blisted
- Enterprise value
- $2.1B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $863M
- Sales growth, 12 months
- −17.3%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +4.5%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- −$0.67
- EPS growth, last FY
- −79.1%
- Net income, 12 months
- −$85M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 15.3%
- Net margin
- −9.8%
- FCF margin
- −0.2%
- Return on equity
- −5%
- Return on invested capital
- 4%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $146M
- Total debt
- $1.2B
- Net cash
- −$1.0B
- Debt / equity
- 0.77×
- Interest coverage
- 0.9×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- −$2M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 1.00%$11M paid
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +0.2%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $2M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From HighPeak Energy’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.1B · Sales +26%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield-0.2%
- Free-cash-flow margin8%
- Gross margin72%
- Operating margin30%
- Return on invested capital8%
- Return on equity−6%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+26%
- Net debt / EBITDA1.8×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $8.67
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$3.89−55.1%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$8.67you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 6$10.14+17.0%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$11.57+33.4%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 39 · 5 days −23.9%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 9
- DateMon Nov 9, after the close
- Consensus EPS$0.06
- Year-ago EPS$0.03
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
HPK is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on HighPeak Energy in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 5:14 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Oil & Gas Production
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.