QualityDipStocks / Industrials · Leasing
Herc HRI
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 7% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen. No fair value estimate for now: the model’s result is too extreme to stand behind.
Worth knowing
- FCF yield 20%, top 1% of the 1145 we measure
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- $164.15price +2%
- Off 52-wk high
- −7%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 1.89
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Near its high
The price is 7% below its 52-week high (Feb 10), but the business held up: revenue +19.4%, earnings per share turned to a profit, free cash flow +19.2%.
Some numbers held up (revenue +19.4%, earnings per share turned to a profit, free cash flow +19.2%), others slipped. The price is 7% below its 52-week high.
The price is 7% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($181.12, Feb 10) the price assumed about −13%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($91.04, Apr 2) about −26%; today about −17%. The last 3 years delivered 5%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 5%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $181.12Feb 10 | $91.04Apr 2 | $168.14 |
| Implied growth | −13% | −26% | −17% |
| P/E | n/a | 2858.7× | 45.8× |
| P/FCF | 6.4× | 3.1× | 5.0× |
| EV/Sales | 3.4× | 2.5× | 2.8× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
Estimate unreliable for HRI: the model gives 516% above the price, more than we can stand behind (usually peak-cycle cash flow, heavy debt, or cash flows that include customer or loan balances). We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, HRI’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 17% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much HRI moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 4.8× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.89
- Volatility
- 62% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.39
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.35
How it ranks
Where HRI stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 1 of 3 measures
- Free cash flow yield20% · free cash flow vs market capTop 2%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield1.7% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 37%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+19% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 27%of 1,814
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
MV $164.15 · FCF value $390.32
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 20.0% (price / FCF 5.0×): $1.1B of free cash in the last 12 months.
GrowthSales compounded 17% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
GrowthSales grew 19% to $4.9B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 19% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 100% to $0.03 in FY2025.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 27 points in two fiscal years, to 0% in FY2025.
Balance sheetNet debt of $8.0B, 141% of the market cap (Sep 30, 2026).
Balance sheetDebt rose 118% to $8.0B from FY2023 to FY2025.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; net debt 9.8× EBITDA (limit 3×).
All fundamentals
P/E 45.8 · FCF yield 20.0% · ROE 6%
Valuation
- P/E
- 45.8×Industrials median 26.5×
- Price / FCF
- 5.0×
- FCF yield
- 20.0%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 1.15×
- Price / book
- 2.84×
- Market cap
- $5.6Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $13.6B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $4.9B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +19.4%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +16.9%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $3.74
- EPS growth, last FY
- −99.6%
- Net income, 12 months
- $123M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- 2.5%
- FCF margin
- 22.9%
- Return on equity
- 6%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $66M
- Total debt
- $8.0B
- Net cash
- −$8.0B
- Debt / equity
- 4.05×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $1.1B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +19%
- Dividend yield
- 1.67%$94M paid
- Payout ratio
- 76%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +0.6%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $28M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Herc’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.5B · Sales +5%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.5B
- Free-cash-flow yield20.0%
- Free-cash-flow margin10%
- Gross margin33%
- Operating margin18%
- Return on invested capital6%
- Return on equity6%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+5%
- Net debt / EBITDA9.8×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $168.14
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$91.04−45.9%
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 27$164.15−2.4%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$168.14you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$181.12+7.7%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 68 · 5 days +32.3%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
HRI is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Herc in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Industrials
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.