QualityDipStocks / Industrials · Integrated Freight & Logistics
Hub Group HUBG
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 48% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading near our fair value estimate, 5% under its Market Value.
Worth knowing
- Lowest price in 5 years of weekly closes
- Share count down 9% in 2 years
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $29.79+9%
- Market Value
- $28.82price −5%
- Off 52-wk high
- −48%
- Risk vs market
- Below marketbeta 0.79
52-week range 6% of the way from its 52-week low to its high
Price $27.38Fair value est. $29.79Market Value $28.82
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, HUBG’s free cash flow would need to grow about 2% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much HUBG moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves a bit less than the market, but its own price swings are 3.7× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.79
- Volatility
- 48% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.21
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.15
How it ranks
Where HUBG stands vs every one of the 2,467 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Not in the top quarter on any of these 6 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate9% · price below our base caseTop 41%of 1,507
- Free cash flow yield6.9% · free cash flow vs market capTop 25%of 1,690
- Dividends + buybacks yield2.7% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 49%of 2,227
- Revenue growth, last 12 months−5.8% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 6%of 2,184
- Operating margin3.8% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 25%of 1,549
- Return on invested capital6% · profit per dollar of capitalLowest 34%of 1,001
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $29.79 · MV $28.82 · FCF value $24.16
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew -2.3% a year FY21–FY24; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $1.88 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2025), from the 10-Q filed Nov 5, 2025. Net debt $135M, not deducted.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationP/E of 15.7× vs a 26.3× median for the 245 Industrials companies we cover.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 6.9% (price / FCF 14.6×): $113M of free cash in the last 12 months.
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 5.4×: modest for what the business earns before interest, tax and depreciation.
ProfitabilityGross margin widened to 16.7% in FY2022 from 12.2% in FY2020 (SEC filings).
ValuationTrades 5.0% below its Market Value of $28.82, the average price paid since the Sep 15 filing.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 16 points in two fiscal years, to 6% in FY2024.
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 3.6% in FY2024 from 8.9% in FY2022 (SEC filings).
Cash returnsFree cash flow fell 47% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 6%, below the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; sales down vs the year-ago quarter.
All fundamentals
P/E 15.7 · FCF yield 6.9% · ROE 6%
Valuation
- P/E
- 15.7×Industrials median 26.3×
- Price / FCF
- 14.6×
- FCF yield
- 6.9%
- EV / EBITDA
- 5.4×
- Price / sales
- 0.44×
- Price / book
- 0.97×
- Market cap
- $1.7Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $1.8B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $3.7B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- −5.8%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −2.3%/yrfrom FY2021
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $1.74
- EPS growth, last FY
- −35.1%
- Net income, 12 months
- $105M
- Net income growth
- −3%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 3.8%
- Net margin
- 2.8%
- FCF margin
- 3.0%
- Return on equity
- 6%
- Return on invested capital
- 6%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $120M
- Total debt
- $255M
- Net cash
- −$135M
- Debt / equity
- 0.15×
- Interest coverage
- 11.2×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $113M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −47%
- Dividend yield
- 1.82%$30M paid
- Payout ratio
- 29%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $14M0.8% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −1.0%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $19M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2025; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2025. From Hub Group’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.1B · Sales −5%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield6.9%
- Free-cash-flow margin2%
- Gross margin11%
- Operating margin4%
- Return on invested capital6%
- Return on equity6%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)−5%
- Net debt / EBITDA1.1×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $27.38
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$25.66−6.3%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$27.38you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Sep 15$28.82+5.3%
- Fair value est.base case$29.79+8.8%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$52.53+91.9%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 46 · 5 days +5.1%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 5
- DateThu Nov 5
- Consensus EPS$0.26
- Year-ago EPS$0.49
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
HUBG is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Hub Group in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 5:14 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Integrated Freight & Logistics
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.