QualityDipStocks / Health Care · Medical/Nursing Services
InnovAge INNV
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 26% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading below our fair value estimate, 4% under its Market Value.
Worth knowing
- Down 29% from its 52-week high while revenue grew 16%
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $10.21+14%
- Market Value
- $9.24price −4%
- Off 52-wk high
- −26%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.48
52-week range 61% of the way from its 52-week low to its high
Price $8.92Fair value est. $10.21Market Value $9.24
5 bullish · 4 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 26% below its 52-week high (Jul 6), but the business held up: free cash flow +18.4%, operating margin +1.3 pts, net cash (cash minus debt) +1.0% of market cap since the high.
Some numbers held up (free cash flow +18.4%, operating margin +1.3 pts, net cash (cash minus debt) +1.0% of market cap since the high), others slipped. The price is 26% below its 52-week high.
The price is 26% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 9 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$949M → $990M (+4.3%)held up
- Revenue growth rate+14.1% → +15.9% a year (+1.8 pts)held up
- Free cash flow, 12 months$43M → $50M (+18.4%)held up
- Operating margin−1.0% → 0.3% (+1.3 pts)held up
- Shares outstanding0.0% (fewer shares, each owns more)held up
- Net cash (cash minus debt)+1.0% of market cap since the highheld up
- Stock vs its sector (Health Care)stock −26%, sector median +2% since Jul 6changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −26%, revenue/EPS/FCF median +11% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 38.6× at the high → 24.0× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Mar 31, 2026) vs the latest filing (12 months to Jun 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($12.11, Jul 6) the price assumed about 19%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($3.99, Nov 5) about 2%; today about 10%. The last 3 years delivered 13%/yr (revenue).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 13%/yr (revenue)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $12.11Jul 6 | $3.99Nov 5 | $8.92 |
| Implied growth | +19% | +2% | +10% |
| P/FCF | 38.6× | 15.1× | 24.0× |
| EV/Sales | 1.6× | 0.6× | 1.1× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 12.9% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 10.9%; bull = 8.5% and 14.9% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, INNV’s free cash flow would need to grow about 10% a year for five years; our estimate uses 13%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much INNV moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 5.9× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.48
- Volatility
- 75% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.08
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.01
How it ranks
Where INNV stands vs every one of the 2,467 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Not in the top quarter on any of these 5 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate14% · price below our base caseTop 38%of 1,507
- Free cash flow yield4.2% · free cash flow vs market capTop 48%of 1,690
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+16% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 32%of 2,184
- Operating margin0.3% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 16%of 1,549
- Return on invested capital1.4% · profit per dollar of capitalLowest 14%of 1,001
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $10.21 · MV $9.24 · FCF value $9.29
Assumes 12.9% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 12.9% a year FY23–FY26), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $0.37 a share (fiscal year to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-K filed Sep 9, 2026. Net cash $93M, not added.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $10.21, 14% above the price.
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 89% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
Balance sheetNet cash of $93M: cash and short-term investments exceed debt (Jun 30, 2026).
ProfitabilityGross margin widened to 23.0% in FY2026 from 17.3% in FY2024 (SEC filings).
ValuationTrades 3.5% below its Market Value of $9.24, the average price paid since the Sep 8 filing.
Top bearish points 4 of 5
ProfitabilityLost $3M over the last 12 months (net income, SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 1%, below the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 47×: a rich multiple of current earnings power.
RiskReports earnings Nov 3 (consensus EPS $0.11): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
All fundamentals
FCF yield 4.2% · ROE -1% · Sales +16%
Valuation
- P/E
- n/aloss over the last 12 months
- Price / FCF
- 24.0×
- FCF yield
- 4.2%
- EV / EBITDA
- 47.1×
- Price / sales
- 1.22×
- Price / book
- 5.14×
- Market cap
- $1.2Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $1.1B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $990M
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +15.9%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +12.9%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- −$0.02
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- −$3M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 23.0%
- Operating margin
- 0.3%
- Net margin
- −0.3%
- FCF margin
- 5.1%
- Return on equity
- −1%
- Return on invested capital
- 1%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $141M
- Total debt
- $49M
- Net cash
- $93M
- Debt / equity
- 0.21×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $50M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +89%
- Dividend yield
- n/ano dividend payments tagged
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +0.4%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $7M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From InnovAge’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.1B · Sales +18%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield4.2%
- Free-cash-flow margin5%
- Gross margin68%
- Operating margin5%
- Return on invested capital22%
- Return on equity0%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+18%
- Net debt / EBITDA−2.0×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $8.92
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$3.99−55.3%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$8.92you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Sep 8$9.24+3.6%
- Fair value est.base case$10.21+14.4%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$12.11+35.8%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 40 · 5 days −3.8%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 3
- DateTue Nov 3, after the close
- Consensus EPS$0.11
- Year-ago EPS$0.06
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
INNV is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on InnovAge in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 5:14 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Medical/Nursing Services
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.