QualityDipStocks / Health Care · Medical/Nursing Services
Teladoc Health TDOC
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 11% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate.
Worth knowing
- FCF yield 17%, top 3% of the 1322 we measure
- #25 furthest below its fair value estimate of the 1507 we value
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $22.82+164%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −11%
- Risk vs market
- Market-likebeta 1.09
52-week range 79% of the way from its 52-week low to its high
Price $8.63Fair value est. $22.82
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Mixed signals
The price is 11% below its 52-week high (Jul 15), but the business held up: operating margin +1.5 pts.
Some numbers held up (operating margin +1.5 pts), others slipped (revenue −1.8%). The price is 11% below its 52-week high.
The price is 11% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: revenue −1.8%.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 8 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$2.5B → $2.5B (−1.8%)changed
- Revenue growth rate−1.5% → −2.4% a year (−0.9 pts)about the same
- Free cash flow, 12 months$280M → $262M (−6.5%)about the same
- Operating margin−8.1% → −6.6% (+1.5 pts)held up
- Shares outstanding+1.5% (more shares, each owns less)about the same
- Stock vs its sector (Health Care)stock −11%, sector median +3% since Jul 15about the same
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −11%, revenue/EPS/FCF median −4% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 6.2× at the high → 6.0× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Mar 31, 2026) vs the latest filing (12 months to Sep 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($9.72, Jul 15) the price assumed about −13%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($4.47, Feb 12) about −27%; today about −14%. The last 3 years delivered 18%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 18%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $9.72Jul 15 | $4.47Feb 12 | $8.63 |
| Implied growth | −13% | −27% | −14% |
| P/FCF | 6.2× | 2.8× | 6.0× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, TDOC’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 14% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much TDOC moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves about in line with the market, and its own price swings are 5.1× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.09
- Volatility
- 65% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.21
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.12
How it ranks
Where TDOC stands vs every one of the 2,467 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 2 of 5 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate164% · price below our base caseTop 2%of 1,507
- Free cash flow yield17% · free cash flow vs market capTop 4%of 1,690
- Dividends + buybacks yield0% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 1%of 2,227
- Revenue growth, last 12 months−2.4% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 9%of 2,184
- Operating margin−6.6% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 9%of 1,549
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $22.82 · FCF value $26.97
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 1.7% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $1.44 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 29, 2026.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 16.7% (price / FCF 6.0×): $262M of free cash in the last 12 months.
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $22.82, 164% above the price (cyclical or peak cash flow, so treat with care).
ProfitabilityGross margin widened to 69.1% in FY2022 from 64.3% in FY2020 (SEC filings).
ValuationPrice / book of 1.2×, below the 4.8× median for the 291 Health Care companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only -8.0× over the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityLost $155M over the last 12 months (net income, SEC filings).
ProfitabilityLoses money at the operating line: −7% operating margin over the last 12 months.
GrowthSales grew only 1.7% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; sales down vs the year-ago quarter.
All fundamentals
FCF yield 16.7% · ROE -12% · Sales −2%
Valuation
- P/E
- n/aloss over the last 12 months
- Price / FCF
- 6.0×
- FCF yield
- 16.7%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 0.64×
- Price / book
- 1.21×
- Market cap
- $1.6Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $2.5B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- −2.4%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +1.7%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- −$0.86
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- −$155M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- −6.6%
- Net margin
- −6.3%
- FCF margin
- 10.6%
- Return on equity
- −12%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $850M
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- -8.0×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $262M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −6%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +2.8%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $51M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Teladoc Health’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.2B · Sales −3%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.2B
- Free-cash-flow yield16.7%
- Free-cash-flow margin8%
- Gross margin69%
- Operating margin−4%
- Return on invested capital−5%
- Return on equity−12%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)−3%
- Net debt / EBITDA2.2×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $8.63
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$4.47−48.2%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$8.63you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$9.72+12.6%
- Fair value est.base case$22.82+164.5%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 78 · 5 days +38.3%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
TDOC is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Teladoc Health in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 5:14 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Medical/Nursing Services
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.