QualityDipStocks / Health Care · Medical/Nursing Services
Omada Health OMDA
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 30% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate, 16% under its Market Value.
Worth knowing
- Down 32% from its 52-week high while revenue grew 48%
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $10.96−39%
- Market Value
- $21.34price −16%
- Off 52-wk high
- −30%
- Risk vs market
- Above marketbeta 1.27
52-week range 47% of the way from its 52-week low to its high
Price $17.85Fair value est. $10.96Market Value $21.34
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, OMDA’s free cash flow would need to grow about 24% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much OMDA moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings more than the market, and its own price swings are 4.9× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.27
- Volatility
- 63% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.26
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.23
How it ranks
Where OMDA stands vs every one of the 2,467 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 1 of 5 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate39% · price above our base caseLowest 20%of 1,507
- Free cash flow yield2% · free cash flow vs market capLowest 30%of 1,690
- Dividends + buybacks yield0% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 1%of 2,227
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+48% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 8%of 2,184
- Operating margin−0.1% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 15%of 1,549
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $10.96 · MV $21.34 · FCF value $4.06
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 45.6% a year FY23–FY25; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $0.36 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 7, 2026.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to −4.6% in FY2025 from −53.8% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
GrowthSales grew 48% to $310M over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
GrowthSales compounded 46% a year from FY2023 to FY2025.
ProfitabilityGross margin widened to 65.7% in FY2025 from 57.0% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ValuationTrades 16.4% below its Market Value of $21.34, the average price paid since the Aug 6 filing.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $10.96, 39% below the price.
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only -1.2× over the last 12 months.
ValuationP/E of 265.1× vs a 28.9× median for the 161 Health Care companies we cover.
ProfitabilityLoses money at the operating line: −0% operating margin over the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity is only 2% over the last 12 months.
All fundamentals
P/E 265.1 · FCF yield 2.0% · ROE 2%
Valuation
- P/E
- 265.1×Health Care median 28.9×
- Price / FCF
- 50.2×
- FCF yield
- 2.0%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 3.68×
- Price / book
- 4.52×
- Market cap
- $1.1Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $310M
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +47.6%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +45.6%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $0.67
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- $4M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 68.2%
- Operating margin
- −0.1%
- Net margin
- 1.4%
- FCF margin
- 7.3%
- Return on equity
- 2%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $222M
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- -1.2×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $23M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- $17M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Omada Health’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.0B · Sales +43%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.0B
- Free-cash-flow yield2.0%
- Free-cash-flow margin4%
- Gross margin68%
- Operating margin4%
- Return on invested capital30%
- Return on equity2%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+43%
- Net debt / EBITDA−40.8×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $17.85
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$10.94−38.7%
- Fair value est.base case$10.96−38.6%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$17.85you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 6$21.34+19.6%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$25.67+43.8%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 39 · 5 days −7.2%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 5
- DateThu Nov 5, after the close
- Consensus EPS$0.01
- Year-ago EPS($0.03)
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
OMDA is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Omada Health in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 5:14 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Medical/Nursing Services
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.