QualityDipStocks / Health Care · Pharmaceuticals
Johnson & Johnson JNJ
Not in a dip: trading near its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well above our fair value estimate, 5% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $154.28−44%
- Market Value
- $260.44price +5%
- Off 52-wk high
- −2%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.20
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $273.20
- Fair value est.base case$154.28−43.5%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$186.00−31.9%
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 13$260.44−4.7%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$273.20you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$278.43+1.9%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 5.6% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 3.6%; bull = 8.5% and 7.6% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, JNJ’s free cash flow would need to grow about 16% a year for five years; our estimate uses 6%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much JNJ moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 1.6× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.20
- Volatility
- 21% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.12
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.28
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 91% to $11.03 in FY2025.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 20% over the last 12 months.
Balance sheetDebt / equity of 0.5×, below the 0.7× median for the 67 Health Care companies we cover.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 1.9%, above the 1.1% median for the 47 Health Care companies we cover.
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $154.28, 44% below the price.
ValuationP/E of 41.6× is 125% above its own average of 18.4× at the last 3 fiscal year-ends.
Balance sheetDebt rose 62% to $49.9B from FY2023 to FY2025.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 18 points in two fiscal years, to 33% in FY2025.
ValuationP/E of 41.6× vs a 29.2× median for the 86 Health Care companies we cover.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Johnson & Johnson in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Pharmaceuticals
All fundamentals
P/E 41.6 · FCF yield 3.1% · ROE 20%
Valuation
- P/E
- 41.6×3-yr-end avg 18.4× · Health Care median 29.2×
- Price / FCF
- 32.5×
- FCF yield
- 3.1%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 6.73×
- Price / book
- 8.21×
- Market cap
- $669Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $696B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $99.3B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +7.8%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +5.6%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $6.58
- EPS growth, last FY
- +90.5%
- Net income, 12 months
- $16.1B
- Net income growth
- −36%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 67.6%
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- 16.2%
- FCF margin
- 20.7%
- Return on equity
- 20%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $17.2B
- Total debt
- $44.7B
- Net cash
- −$27.4B
- Debt / equity
- 0.55×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $20.6B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +5%
- Dividend yield
- 1.90%$12.7B paid
- Payout ratio
- 79%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $7.9B1.2% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- +0.8%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $1.4B
Trailing 12 months to Sep 27, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 27, 2026. From Johnson & Johnson’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $154.28 · MV $260.44 · FCF value $201.96
Assumes 5.6% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 5.6% a year FY23–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $8.41 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 27, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 21, 2026. Net debt $27.4B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 60 · 5 days +3.6%
The business
FCF $19.6B · Sales +6%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$19.6B
- Free-cash-flow yield3.0%
- Free-cash-flow margin20%
- Gross margin68%
- Operating margin26%
- Return on invested capital16%
- Return on equity20%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+6%
- Net debt / EBITDA1.0×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when JNJ fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on JNJ or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.