QualityDipStocks / Health Care · Pharmaceuticals
Eli Lilly and Company LLY
Not in a dip: trading near its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $678.94−52%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- at the high
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.19
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $1,418
- Fair value est.base case$678.94−52.1%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$844.50−40.4%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$1,418you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$1,418at the price
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, LLY’s free cash flow would need to grow about 29% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much LLY moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 2.8× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.19
- Volatility
- 36% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.07
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.07
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 96% to $22.95 in FY2025.
GrowthSales grew 46% to $86.5B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 86% over the last 12 months, up 29 points in two years.
GrowthSales compounded 32% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 112% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $678.94, 52% below the price.
Balance sheetDebt rose 68% to $42.5B from FY2023 to FY2025.
ValuationPrice / free cash flow of 64×: a rich price for the cash it generates today.
ValuationP/E of 45.9× vs a 29.2× median for the 86 Health Care companies we cover.
Balance sheetDebt / equity of 1.2×, above the 0.7× median for the 67 Health Care companies we cover.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Eli Lilly and Company in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Pharmaceuticals
All fundamentals
P/E 45.9 · FCF yield 1.6% · ROE 86%
Valuation
- P/E
- 45.9×Health Care median 29.2×
- Price / FCF
- 64.4×
- FCF yield
- 1.6%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 14.65×
- Price / book
- 31.45×
- Market cap
- $1.27Tprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $1.31T
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $86.5B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +45.5%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +31.7%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $30.81
- EPS growth, last FY
- +96.0%
- Net income, 12 months
- $27.6B
- Net income growth
- +50%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 83.6%
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- 31.9%
- FCF margin
- 22.7%
- Return on equity
- 86%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $4.9B
- Total debt
- $49.5B
- Net cash
- −$44.6B
- Debt / equity
- 1.23×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $19.7B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +112%
- Dividend yield
- 0.47%$6.0B paid
- Payout ratio
- 22%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $5.8B0.5% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −0.6%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $698M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Eli Lilly and Company’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $678.94 · FCF value $320.37
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 31.7% a year FY22–FY25; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $22.01 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 29, 2026. Net debt $42.1B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 78 · 5 days +11.3%
The business
FCF $11.7B · Sales +39%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$11.7B
- Free-cash-flow yield0.9%
- Free-cash-flow margin14%
- Gross margin84%
- Operating margin51%
- Return on invested capital39%
- Return on equity89%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+39%
- Net debt / EBITDA1.0×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when LLY fires a reversal signal
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