QualityDipStocks / Finance · Consumer finance
Keel Infrastructure KEEL
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 72% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, 42% under its Market Value. No fair value estimate for now: its free cash flow is negative.
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- $3.23price −42%
- Off 52-wk high
- −72%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 4.24
52-week range 4% of the way from its 52-week low to its high
Price $1.89Market Value $3.23
3 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Repricing: business changed
The price is 72% below its 52-week high (Jun 22), but the business held up.
Some numbers held up, others slipped (revenue −13.9%, operating margin −96.4 pts, shares outstanding more shares, each owns less). The price is 72% below its 52-week high.
The price is 72% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: revenue −13.9%, operating margin −96.4 pts, shares outstanding more shares, each owns less.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 6 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$219M → $188M (−13.9%)changed
- Operating margin−97.5% → −193.9% (−96.4 pts)changed
- Shares outstanding+5.4% (more shares, each owns less)changed
- Net cash (cash minus debt)−6.5% of market cap since the highabout the same
- Stock vs its sector (Finance)stock −72%, sector median +3% since Jun 22changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −72%, revenue/EPS/FCF median −14% (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Mar 31, 2026) vs the latest filing (12 months to Jun 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
No estimate for KEEL: negative free cash flow. We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much KEEL moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 8.1× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 4.24
- Volatility
- 103% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.52
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.59
Valuation details
MV $3.23
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 3 of 5
ProfitabilityGross margin widened to −8.2% in FY2025 from −19.7% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
GrowthSales compounded 17% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
ValuationTrades 41.5% below its Market Value of $3.23, the average price paid since the Aug 10 filing.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree cash flow is negative (−$342M over the last 12 months), so there’s no cash-flow value under the price.
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to −65.2% in FY2025 from −41.5% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only -29.0× over the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityLost $434M over the last 12 months (net income, SEC filings).
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: no positive free cash flow; ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; sales down vs the year-ago quarter.
All fundamentals
FCF yield -28.5% · ROE -88%
Valuation
- P/E
- n/aloss over the last 12 months
- Price / FCF
- n/anegative free cash flow
- FCF yield
- −28.5%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/anegative EBITDA
- Price / sales
- 6.38×
- Price / book
- 3.65×
- Market cap
- $1.2Blisted
- Enterprise value
- $1.5B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $188M
- Sales growth, 12 months
- n/ano year-ago 12-month revenue
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +17.2%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- −$0.75
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- −$434M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- −68.2%
- Operating margin
- −193.9%
- Net margin
- n/an/m
- FCF margin
- −181.9%
- Return on equity
- −88%
- Return on invested capital
- −49%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $769M
- Total debt
- $1.0B
- Net cash
- −$257M
- Debt / equity
- 3.12×
- Interest coverage
- -29.0×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- −$342M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +20.5%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $21M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Keel Infrastructure’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $-0.3B · Sales −50%
- Free cash flow, 12 months−$0.3B
- Free-cash-flow yield-28.5%
- Return on equity−76%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)−50%
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $1.89
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$1.71−9.8%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$1.89you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 10$3.23+70.9%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$6.66+252.4%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 27 · 5 days −13.3%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 5
- DateThu Nov 5, before the open
- Consensus EPS($0.07)
- Year-ago EPS($0.02)
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
KEEL is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Keel Infrastructure in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 5:14 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Consumer finance
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.