QualityDipStocks / Real Estate · REITs
Kilroy Realty KRC
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 16% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate.
Worth knowing
- Dividend yield 6%, top 4% of the 1731 we measure
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $61.35+68%
- Market Value
- $36.49at the price
- Off 52-wk high
- −16%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.55
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Repricing: business changed
The price is 16% below its 52-week high (Nov 7), but the business held up: shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more.
Some numbers held up (shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more), others slipped (earnings per share −91.1%, free cash flow −25.8%, revenue −3.6%). The price is 16% below its 52-week high.
The price is 16% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: earnings per share −91.1%, free cash flow −25.8%, revenue −3.6%.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 8 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$1.1B → $1.1B (−3.6%)changed
- Revenue growth rate+0.8% → −3.6% a year (−4.4 pts)changed
- Earnings per share, 12 months$2.72 → $0.24 (−91.1%)changed
- Free cash flow, 12 months$455M → $338M (−25.8%)changed
- Shares outstanding−1.0% (fewer shares, each owns more)held up
- Stock vs its sector (Real Estate)stock −16%, sector median +4% since Nov 7changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −16%, revenue/EPS/FCF median −26% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 11.4× at the high → 12.7× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Sep 30, 2025) vs the latest filing (12 months to Sep 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
52-wk high: P/E 16.0×; 52-wk low: P/E 11.9×; now: P/E 150.2×.
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $43.48Nov 7 | $27.72Apr 9 | $36.51 |
| P/E | 16.0× | 11.9× | 150.2× |
| P/FCF | 11.4× | 7.3× | 12.7× |
What this means: a lower P/E than at the high means you pay less for each dollar of profit than buyers did then.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, KRC’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 6% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much KRC moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 2.3× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.55
- Volatility
- 29% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.24
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.14
How it ranks
Where KRC stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 2 of 3 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate68% · price below our base caseTop 16%of 1,314
- Dividends + buybacks yield6% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 20%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months−3.6% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 7%of 1,814
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $61.35 · MV $36.49 · FCF value $99.97
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 0.5% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $3.87 a share (trailing 12 months to Mar 31, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Apr 28, 2026.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $61.35, 68% above the price.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 7.9% (price / FCF 12.7×): $338M of free cash in the last 12 months.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 6.0% ($256M paid over 12 months).
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 31% to $2.32 in FY2025.
ValuationPrice / book of 0.8×, below the 2.0× median for the 85 Real Estate companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationP/E of 150.2× vs a 25.9× median for the 80 Real Estate companies we cover.
Cash returnsFree cash flow fell 26% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
GrowthSales grew only 0.5% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
GrowthSales fell 4% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; sales down vs the year-ago quarter; net debt 7.5× EBITDA (limit 3×).
All fundamentals
P/E 150.2 · FCF yield 7.9% · ROE 1%
Valuation
- P/E
- 150.2×Real Estate median 25.9×
- Price / FCF
- 12.7×
- FCF yield
- 7.9%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 3.95×
- Price / book
- 0.83×
- Market cap
- $4.3Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $1.1B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- −3.6%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +0.5%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $0.25
- EPS growth, last FY
- +31.1%
- Net income, 12 months
- $29M
- Net income growth
- −91%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- 2.6%
- FCF margin
- 31.1%
- Return on equity
- 1%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $94M
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $338M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −26%
- Dividend yield
- 5.96%$256M paid
- Payout ratio
- n/an/m
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- −1.3%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $16M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Kilroy Realty’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.5B · Sales −3%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.5B
- Free-cash-flow yield7.9%
- Free-cash-flow margin42%
- Gross margin64%
- Operating margin22%
- Return on invested capital2%
- Return on equity1%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)−3%
- Net debt / EBITDA7.5×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $36.51
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$27.72−24.1%
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 22$36.49−0.1%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$36.51you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$43.48+19.1%
- Fair value est.base case$61.35+68.0%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 58 · 5 days −0.5%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
KRC is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Kilroy Realty in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in REITs
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.