QualityDipStocks / Real Estate · REITs
COPT Defense Properties of Beneficial Interest CDP
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 13% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $43.91+32%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −13%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.14
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 13% below its 52-week high (Jul 30), but the business held up: net cash (cash minus debt) −1.3% of market cap since the high, revenue growth rate +0.6 pts, earnings per share +4.6%.
Some numbers held up (net cash (cash minus debt) −1.3% of market cap since the high, revenue growth rate +0.6 pts, earnings per share +4.6%), others slipped. The price is 13% below its 52-week high.
The price is 13% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 9 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$777M → $784M (+1.0%)about the same
- Revenue growth rate+3.9% → +4.5% a year (+0.6 pts)held up
- Earnings per share, 12 months$1.36 → $1.42 (+4.6%)held up
- Free cash flow, 12 months$314M → $318M (+1.4%)held up
- Shares outstanding+0.5% (more shares, each owns less)held up
- Net cash (cash minus debt)−1.3% of market cap since the highheld up
- Stock vs its sector (Real Estate)stock −13%, sector median −7% since Jul 30held up
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −13%, revenue/EPS/FCF median +1% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 14.0× at the high → 12.0× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Mar 31, 2026) vs the latest filing (12 months to Jun 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($38.35, Jul 30) the price assumed about 1%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($27.49, Jan 2) about −5%; today about −2%. The last 3 years delivered 8%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 8%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $38.35Jul 30 | $27.49Jan 2 | $33.20 |
| Implied growth | +1% | −5% | −2% |
| P/E | 28.2× | 20.1× | 23.3× |
| P/FCF | 14.0× | 10.2× | 12.0× |
| EV/Sales | 8.9× | 7.4× | 8.1× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, CDP’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 2% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much CDP moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 1.5× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.14
- Volatility
- 19% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.09
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.03
How it ranks
Where CDP stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Not in the top quarter on any of these 3 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate32% · price below our base caseTop 28%of 1,314
- Dividends + buybacks yield3.7% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 39%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+4.5% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 27%of 1,814
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $43.91 · FCF value $69.89
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 1.1% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $2.77 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 3, 2026. Net debt $2.6B, not deducted.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $43.91, 32% above the price.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 8.3% (price / FCF 12.0×): $318M of free cash in the last 12 months.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 3.7% ($140M paid over 12 months, 85% of earnings).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 11%, above the 7.7% median for the 84 Real Estate companies we cover.
ValuationP/E of 23.3×, below the 25.9× median for the 80 Real Estate companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Balance sheetNet debt of $2.6B, 67% of the market cap (Jun 30, 2026).
GrowthSales grew only 1.1% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
Balance sheetDebt / equity of 1.7×, above the 0.9× median for the 53 Real Estate companies we cover.
Cash returnsDividends take 85% of earnings ($140M paid over 12 months), leaving little to reinvest or raise the payout.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; net debt 6.2× EBITDA (limit 3×).
All fundamentals
P/E 23.3 · FCF yield 8.3% · ROE 11%
Valuation
- P/E
- 23.3×Real Estate median 25.9×
- Price / FCF
- 12.0×
- FCF yield
- 8.3%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 4.86×
- Price / book
- 2.50×
- Market cap
- $3.8Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $6.4B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $784M
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +4.5%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +1.1%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $1.44
- EPS growth, last FY
- +8.9%
- Net income, 12 months
- $164M
- Net income growth
- +14%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- 20.9%
- FCF margin
- 40.6%
- Return on equity
- 11%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $24M
- Total debt
- $2.6B
- Net cash
- −$2.6B
- Debt / equity
- 1.70×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $318M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +5%
- Dividend yield
- 3.66%$140M paid
- Payout ratio
- 85%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +1.5%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $12M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From COPT Defense Properties of Beneficial Interest’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.3B · Sales +10%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.3B
- Free-cash-flow yield8.3%
- Gross margin58%
- Operating margin30%
- Return on invested capital5%
- Return on equity11%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+10%
- Net debt / EBITDA6.2×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $33.20
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$27.49−17.2%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$33.20you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$38.35+15.5%
- Fair value est.base case$43.91+32.3%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 43 · 5 days −2.6%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
CDP is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on COPT Defense Properties of Beneficial Interest in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in REITs
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.