QualityDipStocks / Industrials · Plastic Products
Karat Packaging KRT
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 3% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading above our fair value estimate, 4% over its Market Value.
Worth knowing
- ROE 31% and more cash than debt
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $44.84−15%
- Market Value
- $51.12price +4%
- Off 52-wk high
- −3%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.57
52-week range 95% of the way from its 52-week low to its high
Price $53.04Fair value est. $44.84Market Value $51.12
5 bullish · 3 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Near its high
The price is 3% below its 52-week high (Oct 5), but the business held up: net cash (cash minus debt) 0.0% of market cap since the high, shares outstanding unchanged, operating margin 0.0 pts.
Some numbers held up (net cash (cash minus debt) 0.0% of market cap since the high, shares outstanding unchanged, operating margin 0.0 pts), others slipped. The price is 3% below its 52-week high.
The price is 3% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($54.68, Oct 5) the price assumed about 7%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($21.06, Nov 20) about 4%; today about 6%. The last 3 years delivered 7%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 7%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $54.68Oct 5 | $21.06Nov 20 | $53.04 |
| Implied growth | +7% | +4% | +6% |
| P/E | 21.9× | 14.0× | 21.2× |
| P/FCF | 19.8× | 16.4× | 19.2× |
| EV/Sales | 2.1× | 0.9× | 2.1× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.4% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.4%; bull = 8.5% and 5.4% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, KRT’s free cash flow would need to grow about 6% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much KRT moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 3.0× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.57
- Volatility
- 38% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.19
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.11
How it ranks
Where KRT stands vs every one of the 2,467 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 1 of 6 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate15% · price above our base caseLowest 38%of 1,507
- Free cash flow yield5.2% · free cash flow vs market capTop 38%of 1,690
- Dividends + buybacks yield3.8% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 36%of 2,227
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+12% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 42%of 2,184
- Operating margin13% · of sales kept as operating profitTop 44%of 1,549
- Return on invested capital38% · profit per dollar of capitalTop 7%of 1,001
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $44.84 · MV $51.12 · FCF value $36.16
Assumes 3.4% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 3.4% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $2.76 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 7, 2026. Net cash $42M, not added.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 38%, above the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 31% over the last 12 months.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 5.2% (price / FCF 19.2×): $56M of free cash in the last 12 months.
Balance sheetNet cash of $42M: cash and short-term investments exceed debt (Jun 30, 2026).
Cash returnsDividend yield of 3.4% ($36M paid over 12 months, 72% of earnings).
Top bearish points 3 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $44.84, 15% below the price.
ValuationPrice / book of 6.4×, above the 3.3× median for the 274 Industrials companies we cover.
RiskReports earnings Nov 5 (consensus EPS $0.44): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
All fundamentals
P/E 21.2 · FCF yield 5.2% · ROE 31%
Valuation
- P/E
- 21.2×Industrials median 26.3×
- Price / FCF
- 19.2×
- FCF yield
- 5.2%
- EV / EBITDA
- 13.8×
- Price / sales
- 2.16×
- Price / book
- 6.41×
- Market cap
- $1.1Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $1.0B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $493M
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +11.6%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +3.4%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $2.50
- EPS growth, last FY
- +4.7%
- Net income, 12 months
- $50M
- Net income growth
- +57%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 40.7%
- Operating margin
- 12.8%
- Net margin
- 10.2%
- FCF margin
- 11.3%
- Return on equity
- 31%
- Return on invested capital
- 38%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $54M
- Total debt
- $12M
- Net cash
- $42M
- Debt / equity
- 0.07×
- Interest coverage
- 33.9×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $56M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +25%
- Dividend yield
- 3.38%$36M paid
- Payout ratio
- 72%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $5M0.5% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −0.4%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $1M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Karat Packaging’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.0B · Sales +10%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.0B
- Free-cash-flow yield5.2%
- Free-cash-flow margin6%
- Gross margin36%
- Operating margin9%
- Return on invested capital18%
- Return on equity31%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+10%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.4×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $53.04
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$21.06−60.3%
- Fair value est.base case$44.84−15.5%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 6$51.12−3.6%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$53.04you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$54.68+3.1%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 50 · 5 days −2.4%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 5
- DateThu Nov 5, after the close
- Consensus EPS$0.44
- Year-ago EPS$0.36
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
KRT is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Karat Packaging in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 5:14 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Plastic Products
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.