QualityDipStocks / Finance · Consumer finance
Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz KSPI
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 14% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $174.27+87%
- Market Value
- —
- Off 52-wk high
- −14%
- Risk vs market
- Market-likebeta 1.02
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, KSPI’s free cash flow would need to grow about 4% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much KSPI moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves about in line with the market, and its own price swings are 2.7× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.02
- Volatility
- 34% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.38
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.31
How it ranks
Where KSPI stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 2 of 3 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate87% · price below our base caseTop 12%of 1,314
- Dividends + buybacks yield0.3% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 22%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+60% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 5%of 1,814
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $174.27
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 47.1% a year FY22–FY25; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $5.65 a share (fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025, converted from KZT at 0.002207), from the 20-F filed Mar 16, 2026.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $174.27, 87% above the price.
GrowthSales grew 60% to $8.9B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
GrowthSales compounded 47% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 54% over the last 12 months.
ValuationP/E of 7.6× vs a 13.6× median for the 291 Finance companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityGross margin narrowed to 70.9% in FY2025 from 91.3% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 35 points in two fiscal years, to 43% in FY2025.
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 3.0% in the last fiscal year, below the 16% median for the 262 Finance companies we cover.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: no positive free cash flow.
RiskReports earnings Nov 9 (consensus EPS $3.12): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
All fundamentals
P/E 7.6 · FCF yield 6.0% · ROE 54%
Valuation
- P/E
- 7.6×Finance median 13.6×
- Price / FCF
- 16.5×
- FCF yield
- 6.0%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 2.01×
- Price / book
- 3.26×
- Market cap
- $17.9Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $8.9B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +59.8%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +47.1%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $5592.00
- EPS growth, last FY
- +3.0%
- Net income, 12 months
- $2.4B
- Net income growth
- +3%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 70.9%
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- 26.5%
- FCF margin
- 12.1%
- Return on equity
- 54%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $2.0B
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $1.1B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +1%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- 0%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $48M0.3% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Dec 31, 2025; balance sheet at Dec 31, 2025. From Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz’s SEC filings, reported in KZT and converted to US dollars. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $-612.4B · Sales +14%
- Free cash flow, 12 months−$612.4B
- Free-cash-flow yield6.0%
- Gross margin69%
- Operating margin0%
- Return on equity45%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+14%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.0×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $93.39
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$68.84−26.3%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$93.39you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$108.75+16.4%
- Fair value est.base case$174.27+86.6%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 49 · 5 days +3.6%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 9
- DateMon Nov 9, before the open
- Consensus EPS$3.12
- Year-ago EPS$2.72
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
KSPI is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Consumer finance
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.