QualityDipStocks / Utilities · Pipelines
National Fuel Gas Company NFG
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 17% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $36.79−54%
- Market Value
- $79.19price 0%
- Off 52-wk high
- −17%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.24
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $79.55
- Fair value est.base case$36.79−53.8%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$75.86−4.6%
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 1$79.19−0.5%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$79.55you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$96.30+21.1%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, NFG’s free cash flow would need to grow about 17% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much NFG moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 1.5× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.24
- Volatility
- 20% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.16
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.25
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityGross margin widened to 90.6% in FY2025 from 79.9% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ValuationP/E of 11.3× vs a 21.2× median for the 55 Utilities companies we cover.
ProfitabilityOperating margin of 40% over the last 12 months.
GrowthSales grew 15% to $2.5B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
Cash returnsDividend yield of 2.6% ($198M paid over 12 months, 29% of earnings).
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $36.79, 54% below the price.
Cash returnsShare count up 5.0% in a year: existing holders are being diluted.
GrowthSales grew 1.4% a year over the last three fiscal years, below the 3.1% median for the 56 Utilities companies we cover.
RiskCyclical business: one strong year of cash flow can make it look cheaper than it is.
RiskReports earnings Nov 4 (consensus EPS $1.15): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on National Fuel Gas Company in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Pipelines
All fundamentals
P/E 11.3 · FCF yield 2.9% · Sales +15%
Valuation
- P/E
- 11.3×Utilities median 21.2×
- Price / FCF
- 34.3×
- FCF yield
- 2.9%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 3.03×
- Price / book
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Market cap
- $7.6Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $2.5B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +15.1%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +1.4%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $7.18
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/an/m: EPS a year ago near zero
- Net income, 12 months
- $675M
- Net income growth
- +177%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 87.7%
- Operating margin
- 40.3%
- Net margin
- 26.9%
- FCF margin
- 8.8%
- Return on equity
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 6.8×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $222M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +20%
- Dividend yield
- 2.60%$198M paid
- Payout ratio
- 29%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $0
- Share count, 1 year
- +5.0%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $19M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026. From National Fuel Gas Company’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $36.79 · MV $79.19
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 1.4% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $2.32 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Jul 30, 2026. Net debt $2.3B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 49 · 5 days −1.2%
The business
FCF $-0.0B · Sales +1%
- Free cash flow, 12 months−$0.0B
- Free-cash-flow yield−0.3%
- Free-cash-flow margin−1%
- Gross margin63%
- Operating margin40%
- Return on invested capital13%
- Return on equity20%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+1%
- Net debt / EBITDA1.5×
Next report
Nov 4
- DateWed Nov 4, after the close
- Consensus EPS$1.15
- Year-ago EPS$1.22
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
NFG is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.