QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Marine Transportation
Matson MATX
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 7% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate.
Worth knowing
- Share count down 10% in 2 years
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $162.38−27%
- Market Value
- $224.92price −2%
- Off 52-wk high
- −7%
- Risk vs market
- Market-likebeta 0.99
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Near its high
The price is 7% below its 52-week high (Sep 15), but the business held up: net cash (cash minus debt) 0.0% of market cap since the high, shares outstanding unchanged, operating margin 0.0 pts.
Some numbers held up (net cash (cash minus debt) 0.0% of market cap since the high, shares outstanding unchanged, operating margin 0.0 pts), others slipped. The price is 7% below its 52-week high.
The price is 7% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($238.60, Sep 15) the price assumed about 10%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($98.07, Nov 4) about −1%; today about 8%. The last 3 years delivered −48%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, −48%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $238.60Sep 15 | $98.07Nov 4 | $221.04 |
| Implied growth | +10% | −1% | +8% |
| P/E | 15.6× | 6.4× | 14.4× |
| P/FCF | 23.3× | 12.3× | 21.6× |
| EV/Sales | 2.2× | 1.0× | 2.0× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, MATX’s free cash flow would need to grow about 8% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much MATX moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves about in line with the market, and its own price swings are 2.7× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.99
- Volatility
- 35% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.36
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.30
How it ranks
Where MATX stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Not in the top quarter on any of these 6 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate27% · price above our base caseLowest 30%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield4.6% · free cash flow vs market capTop 44%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield4.6% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 30%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months−0.2% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 13%of 1,814
- Operating margin15% · of sales kept as operating profitTop 40%of 1,288
- Return on invested capital15% · profit per dollar of capitalTop 35%of 838
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $162.38 · MV $224.92 · FCF value $125.59
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew -8.3% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $10.25 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 4, 2026. Net debt $262M, not deducted.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
Cash returnsShare count down 6.5% in a year: $263M of buybacks over 12 months.
ValuationP/E of 14.4× vs a 20.7× median for the 341 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 14.9% in FY2025 from 11.1% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 4.6% (price / FCF 21.6×): $310M of free cash in the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 17% over the last 12 months, up 4 points in two years.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $162.38, 27% below the price.
GrowthSales shrank 8% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
GrowthSales fell 0.2% over the last 12 months, below the 6.7% median for the 376 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 0.7%, below the 1.8% median for the 229 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
RiskReports earnings Nov 4 (consensus EPS $6.09): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
All fundamentals
P/E 14.4 · FCF yield 4.6% · ROE 17%
Valuation
- P/E
- 14.4×Consumer Discretionary median 20.7×
- Price / FCF
- 21.6×
- FCF yield
- 4.6%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 1.94×
- Price / book
- 2.42×
- Market cap
- $6.7Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $7.0B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $3.5B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- −0.2%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −8.3%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $14.82
- EPS growth, last FY
- −0.9%
- Net income, 12 months
- $464M
- Net income growth
- −6%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 15.2%
- Net margin
- 13.4%
- FCF margin
- 9.0%
- Return on equity
- 17%
- Return on invested capital
- 15%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $119M
- Total debt
- $381M
- Net cash
- −$262M
- Debt / equity
- 0.14×
- Interest coverage
- 79.5×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $310M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +21%
- Dividend yield
- 0.67%$45M paid
- Payout ratio
- 10%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $263M3.9% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −6.5%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $23M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Matson’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.1B · Sales +17%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield4.6%
- Free-cash-flow margin4%
- Gross margin23%
- Operating margin16%
- Return on invested capital13%
- Return on equity17%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+17%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.9×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $221.04
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$98.07−55.6%
- Fair value est.base case$162.38−26.5%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$221.04you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 3$224.92+1.8%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$238.60+7.9%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 41 · 5 days −3.4%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 4
- DateWed Nov 4, after the close
- Consensus EPS$6.09
- Year-ago EPS$4.24
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
MATX is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Matson in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Marine Transportation
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.