QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Marine Transportation
Kirby KEX
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 6% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $170.94+19%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −6%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.57
5 bullish · 4 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $143.93
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$103.48−28.1%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$143.93you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$152.59+6.0%
- Fair value est.base case$170.94+18.8%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 6.5% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 4.5%; bull = 8.5% and 8.5% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, KEX’s free cash flow would need to grow about 3% a year for five years; our estimate uses 7%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much KEX moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 2.1× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.57
- Volatility
- 27% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.27
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.29
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $170.94, 19% above the price.
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 82% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
Cash returnsShare count down 4.9% in a year: $334M of buybacks over 12 months.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 6.2% (price / FCF 16.3×): $476M of free cash in the last 12 months.
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 29% to $6.33 in FY2025.
Top bearish points 4 of 5
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 8.3%, below the 16% median for the 114 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 10%, below the 23% median for the 149 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ValuationP/E of 21.8×, above the 20.9× median for the 169 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Kirby in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Marine Transportation
All fundamentals
P/E 21.8 · FCF yield 6.2% · ROE 10%
Valuation
- P/E
- 21.8×Consumer Discretionary median 20.9×
- Price / FCF
- 16.3×
- FCF yield
- 6.2%
- EV / EBITDA
- 11.4×
- Price / sales
- 2.21×
- Price / book
- 2.25×
- Market cap
- $7.7Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $8.7B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $3.5B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +6.6%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +6.5%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $6.51
- EPS growth, last FY
- +28.9%
- Net income, 12 months
- $355M
- Net income growth
- +17%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 14.0%
- Net margin
- 10.2%
- FCF margin
- 13.6%
- Return on equity
- 10%
- Return on invested capital
- 8%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $39M
- Total debt
- $1.0B
- Net cash
- −$998M
- Debt / equity
- 0.30×
- Interest coverage
- 11.0×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $476M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +82%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $334M4.3% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −4.9%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $19M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Kirby’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $170.94 · FCF value $224.31
Assumes 6.5% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 6.5% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $8.86 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 5, 2026. Net debt $998M, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 62 · 5 days +8.1%
The business
FCF $0.5B · Sales +12%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.5B
- Free-cash-flow yield6.2%
- Gross margin33%
- Operating margin16%
- Return on invested capital10%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+12%
- Net debt / EBITDA1.5×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
KEX is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.