QualityDipStocks / Technology · Software
Mobileye Global MBLY
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 57% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading near our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $6.10+8%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −57%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 2.22
2 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $5.65
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$5.65you are here
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$5.65at the price
- Fair value est.base case$6.10+7.9%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$13.15+132.7%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, MBLY’s free cash flow would need to grow about 2% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much MBLY moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 4.5× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 2.22
- Volatility
- 57% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.50
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.47
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 2 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 6.8% (price / FCF 14.7×): $317M of free cash in the last 12 months.
ValuationPrice / book of 0.6×, below the 6.9× median for the 151 Technology companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to −23.2% in FY2025 from −1.6% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityLost $4.0B over the last 12 months (net income, SEC filings).
Cash returnsFree cash flow fell 50% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; sales down vs the year-ago quarter.
RiskSwings hard: beta 2.22 vs the S&P 500 and 57% yearly volatility (SPY 13%).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Mobileye Global in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 2, 4:24 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Software
All fundamentals
FCF yield 6.8% · ROE -40% · Sales +3%
Valuation
- P/E
- n/aloss over the last 12 months
- Price / FCF
- 14.7×
- FCF yield
- 6.8%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 2.32×
- Price / book
- 0.57×
- Market cap
- $4.7Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $2.0B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +3.4%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +0.4%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- −$4.92
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- −$4.0B
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 48.6%
- Operating margin
- n/an/m
- Net margin
- n/an/m
- FCF margin
- 15.8%
- Return on equity
- −40%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $1.3B
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $317M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −50%
- Dividend yield
- n/ano dividend payments tagged
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $33M0.7% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- +1.2%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $342M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 26, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 26, 2026. From Mobileye Global’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $6.10 · FCF value $8.86
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 0.4% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $0.38 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 26, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 29, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 27 · 5 days −15.2%
The business
FCF $0.3B · Sales −2%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.3B
- Free-cash-flow yield6.3%
- Gross margin49%
- Operating margin−17%
- Return on invested capital−25%
- Return on equity−40%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)−2%
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
MBLY is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.