QualityDipStocks / Health Care · Medical devices
Medtronic plc. MDT
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 8% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading above our fair value estimate, 7% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $85.64−11%
- Market Value
- $90.42price +7%
- Off 52-wk high
- −8%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.11
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $96.54
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$73.75−23.6%
- Fair value est.base case$85.64−11.3%
- Market Valueavg paid since Sep 1$90.42−6.3%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$96.54you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$105.35+9.1%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 5.2% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 3.2%; bull = 8.5% and 7.2% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, MDT’s free cash flow would need to grow about 7% a year for five years; our estimate uses 5%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much MDT moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 1.9× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.11
- Volatility
- 25% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.06
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.13
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 4.9% (price / FCF 20.2×): $6.1B of free cash in the last 12 months.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 2.9% ($3.6B paid over 12 months, 70% of earnings).
GrowthSales grew 10% to $37.5B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 16% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $85.64, 11% below the price.
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 8.1%, below the 11% median for the 61 Health Care companies we cover.
GrowthSales grew 5.2% a year over the last three fiscal years, below the 7.3% median for the 101 Health Care companies we cover.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%.
ValuationTrades 6.8% above its Market Value of $90.42, the average price paid since the Sep 1 filing.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Medtronic plc. in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Health Care
All fundamentals
P/E 23.7 · FCF yield 4.9% · ROE 11%
Valuation
- P/E
- 23.7×Health Care median 29.2×
- Price / FCF
- 20.2×
- FCF yield
- 4.9%
- EV / EBITDA
- 14.5×
- Price / sales
- 3.30×
- Price / book
- 2.47×
- Market cap
- $124Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $141B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $37.5B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +9.8%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +5.2%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $4.06
- EPS growth, last FY
- +3.3%
- Net income, 12 months
- $5.2B
- Net income growth
- +12%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 65.0%
- Operating margin
- 18.1%
- Net margin
- 13.9%
- FCF margin
- 16.3%
- Return on equity
- 11%
- Return on invested capital
- 8%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $8.8B
- Total debt
- $25.6B
- Net cash
- −$16.8B
- Debt / equity
- 0.51×
- Interest coverage
- 9.4×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $6.1B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +16%
- Dividend yield
- 2.94%$3.6B paid
- Payout ratio
- 70%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $1.2B1.0% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −0.2%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $496M
Trailing 12 months to Jul 31, 2026; balance sheet at Jul 31, 2026. From Medtronic plc.’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $85.64 · MV $90.42 · FCF value $119.12
Assumes 5.2% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 5.2% a year FY23–FY26), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $4.77 a share (trailing 12 months to Jul 31, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Sep 3, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 60 · 5 days +1.2%
The business
FCF $6.1B · Sales +14%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$6.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield4.9%
- Free-cash-flow margin16%
- Gross margin65%
- Operating margin19%
- Return on invested capital7%
- Return on equity11%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+14%
- Net debt / EBITDA2.6×
Next report
Nov 17
- DateTue Nov 17
- Consensus EPS$1.34
- Year-ago EPS$1.36
- QuarterOct/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
MDT is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.