QualityDipStocks / Finance · Property-Casualty Insurers
Mercury General MCY
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 7% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen. No fair value estimate for now: our model doesn’t fit it reliably.
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- $103.02price +1%
- Off 52-wk high
- −7%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.00
5 bullish · 4 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Near its high
The price is 7% below its 52-week high (Jul 6), but the business held up: earnings per share +12.4%, shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more, revenue +3.3%.
Some numbers held up (earnings per share +12.4%, shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more, revenue +3.3%), others slipped. The price is 7% below its 52-week high.
The price is 7% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
52-wk high: P/E 7.3×; 52-wk low: P/E 10.8×; now: P/E 6.1×.
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $111.12Jul 6 | $76.23Nov 3 | $103.73 |
| P/E | 7.3× | 10.8× | 6.1× |
What this means: a lower P/E than at the high means you pay less for each dollar of profit than buyers did then.
How it’s computed
Banks, insurers and lenders: cash flow includes deposits and loans, so a cash-flow model doesn't fit; we show P/E at each point instead. P/E = that day's close × diluted shares / 12-month net income, using only the filings that were public on that day.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
Estimate unreliable for MCY: earnings swing too much for a book-value model (return on equity ranged from -28% to 39% across FY2021–2025 and the latest 12 months). We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much MCY moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 2.0× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.00
- Volatility
- 26% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.00
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.15
Valuation details
MV $103.02
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationP/E of 6.1× vs a 13.6× median for the 291 Finance companies we cover.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 39% over the last 12 months, up 16 points in two years.
GrowthSales compounded 18% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 16% to $9.77 in FY2025.
GrowthSales grew 10% to $6.3B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
Top bearish points 4 of 5
GrowthSales growth slowed to 10% over the last 12 months, from 18% a year over the prior three fiscal years.
ProfitabilityNet margin of 15%, below the 22% median for the 281 Finance companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / book of 2.0×, above the 1.7× median for the 296 Finance companies we cover.
RiskReports earnings Nov 3 (consensus EPS $3.35): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
All fundamentals
P/E 6.1 · ROE 39% · Sales +10%
Valuation
- P/E
- 6.1×Finance median 13.6×
- Price / FCF
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for an insurer
- FCF yield
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for an insurer
- EV / EBITDA
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
- Price / sales
- 0.90×
- Price / book
- 2.01×
- Market cap
- $5.7Blisted
- Enterprise value
- $4.9B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $6.3B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +10.0%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +18.0%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $16.92
- EPS growth, last FY
- +15.6%
- Net income, 12 months
- $937M
- Net income growth
- +140%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- 14.8%
- FCF margin
- 19.9%
- Return on equity
- 39%
- Return on invested capital
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $1.7B
- Total debt
- $944M
- Net cash
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
- Debt / equity
- n/adeposits/float make debt/equity not comparable for an insurer
- Interest coverage
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $1.3B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +55%
- Dividend yield
- 1.23%$70M paid
- Payout ratio
- 8%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- 0.0%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Mercury General’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $1.1B · Sales +14%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$1.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield20.0%
- Return on equity39%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+14%
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $103.73
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$76.23−26.5%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 4$103.02−0.7%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$103.73you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$111.12+7.1%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 54 · 5 days +2.1%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 3
- DateTue Nov 3, after the close
- Consensus EPS$3.35
- Year-ago EPS$3.86
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
MCY is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Mercury General in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Property-Casualty Insurers
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.