QualityDipStocks / Consumer Staples · Packaged Foods
Mondelez International MDLZ
Not in a dip: trading near its 52-week high.
A quality company trading above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $56.58−13%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- at the high
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.32
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $64.94
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$51.51−20.7%
- Fair value est.base case$56.58−12.9%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$64.94you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$65.19+0.4%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 7.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 5.0%; bull = 8.5% and 9.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, MDLZ’s free cash flow would need to grow about 9% a year for five years; our estimate uses 7%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much MDLZ moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 1.9× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.32
- Volatility
- 24% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.17
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.33
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 60% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 3.1% ($2.6B paid over 12 months, 63% of earnings).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 15% over the last 12 months.
GrowthSales grew 7.0% a year over the last three fiscal years, above the 2.0% median for the 39 Consumer Staples companies we cover.
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $56.58, 13% below the price.
ProfitabilityGross margin narrowed to 28.4% in FY2025 from 38.2% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 45% to $1.89 in FY2025.
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 9.2% in FY2025 from 15.3% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 8 points in two fiscal years, to 9% in FY2025.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Mondelez International in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Packaged Foods
All fundamentals
P/E 20.4 · FCF yield 4.4% · ROE 15%
Valuation
- P/E
- 20.4×3-yr-end avg 22.0× · Consumer Staples median 21.7×
- Price / FCF
- 22.7×
- FCF yield
- 4.4%
- EV / EBITDA
- 15.1×
- Price / sales
- 2.08×
- Price / book
- 3.12×
- Market cap
- $83.1Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $103B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $39.9B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +6.0%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +7.0%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $3.18
- EPS growth, last FY
- −44.7%
- Net income, 12 months
- $4.1B
- Net income growth
- +15%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 34.3%
- Operating margin
- 13.7%
- Net margin
- 10.2%
- FCF margin
- 9.2%
- Return on equity
- 15%
- Return on invested capital
- 9%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $1.7B
- Total debt
- $21.7B
- Net cash
- −$20.1B
- Debt / equity
- 0.82×
- Interest coverage
- 9.2×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $3.7B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +60%
- Dividend yield
- 3.09%$2.6B paid
- Payout ratio
- 63%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $1.3B1.6% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −1.2%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $163M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Mondelez International’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $56.58 · FCF value $74.46
Assumes 7.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 7.0% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $2.86 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 29, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 61 · 5 days +1.8%
The business
FCF $3.7B · Sales +8%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$3.7B
- Free-cash-flow yield4.6%
- Free-cash-flow margin9%
- Gross margin34%
- Operating margin14%
- Return on invested capital10%
- Return on equity16%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+8%
- Net debt / EBITDA2.9×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when MDLZ fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on MDLZ or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.