QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Business Services
PDD PDD
In a deep dip: 43% below its 52-week high.
A quality company. No fair value estimate for now: the model’s result is too extreme to stand behind.
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- —
- Off 52-wk high
- −43%
- Risk vs market
- Below marketbeta 0.83
5 bullish · 4 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $78.61
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$73.30−6.8%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$78.61you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$138.13+75.7%
Fair value estimate
Estimate unreliable for PDD: the model gives 322% above the price, more than we can stand behind (usually peak-cycle cash flow, heavy debt, or cash flows that include customer or loan balances). We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, PDD’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 10% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much PDD moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves a bit less than the market, and its own price swings are 2.6× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.83
- Volatility
- 33% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.32
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.24
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthSales compounded 49% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
ValuationP/E of 7.9× vs a 20.9× median for the 169 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 27% over the last 12 months.
TechnicalA company that passes our quality screen, now 43% off its 52-week high (deep dip).
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 4 of 5
GrowthSales growth slowed to 10% over the last 12 months, from 49% a year over the prior three fiscal years.
ProfitabilityGross margin narrowed to 56.3% in FY2025 from 63.0% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 8 points in two fiscal years, to 24% in FY2025.
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 21.6% in FY2025 from 23.7% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on PDD in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Business Services
All fundamentals
P/E 7.9 · ROE 27% · Sales +10%
Valuation
- P/E
- 7.9×Consumer Discretionary median 20.9×
- Price / FCF
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- FCF yield
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 1.79×
- Price / book
- 1.87×
- Market cap
- $117Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $65.0B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +9.7%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +49.0%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $16.50
- EPS growth, last FY
- −13.2%
- Net income, 12 months
- $14.7B
- Net income growth
- −13%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 56.3%
- Operating margin
- 21.6%
- Net margin
- 22.7%
- FCF margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on equity
- 27%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $63.6B
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- $1.2B
Trailing 12 months to Dec 31, 2025; balance sheet at Dec 31, 2025. From PDD’s SEC filings, reported in CNY and converted to US dollars. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
FCF value $1,930
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. We watch it daily for our three reversal signal rules while it sits in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 46 · 5 days −0.5%
The business
FCF $110.8B · Sales +8%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$110.8B
- Free-cash-flow yield98.2%
- Free-cash-flow margin25%
- Gross margin56%
- Operating margin22%
- Return on invested capital17%
- Return on equity23%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+8%
- Net debt / EBITDA−1.0×
Next report
Nov 17
- DateTue Nov 17
- Consensus EPS$2.60
- Year-ago EPS$2.77
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when PDD fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on PDD or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.