QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Business Services
Uber Technologies UBER
In a deep dip: 35% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well below our fair value estimate, 9% under its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $152.22+133%
- Market Value
- $71.88price −9%
- Off 52-wk high
- −35%
- Risk vs market
- Below marketbeta 0.80
5 bullish · 2 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $65.25
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$65.25you are here
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$65.25at the price
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 7$71.88+10.2%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$99.72+52.8%
- Fair value est.base case$152.22+133.3%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, UBER’s free cash flow would need to stay flat for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much UBER moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves a bit less than the market, and its own price swings are 2.7× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.80
- Volatility
- 35% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.29
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.21
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationP/E of 14.0× is 59% below its own average of 33.8× at the last 3 fiscal year-ends.
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $152.22, 133% above the price (cyclical or peak cash flow, so treat with care).
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 7.6% (price / FCF 13.2×): $10.1B of free cash in the last 12 months.
ValuationTrades 9.2% below its Market Value of $71.88, the average price paid since the Aug 7 filing.
TechnicalA company that passes our quality screen, now 35% off its 52-week high (deep dip).
Top bearish points 2 of 5
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 19.2×, above the 12.8× median for the 113 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
RiskReports earnings Nov 4 (consensus EPS $0.94): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Uber Technologies in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Business Services
All fundamentals
P/E 14.0 · FCF yield 7.6% · ROE 38%
Valuation
- P/E
- 14.0×3-yr-end avg 33.8× · Consumer Discretionary median 20.9×
- Price / FCF
- 13.2×
- FCF yield
- 7.6%
- EV / EBITDA
- 19.2×
- Price / sales
- 2.42×
- Price / book
- 4.90×
- Market cap
- $134Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $143B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $55.2B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +16.7%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +17.7%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $4.56
- EPS growth, last FY
- +3.7%
- Net income, 12 months
- $9.6B
- Net income growth
- −24%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 12.1%
- Net margin
- 17.3%
- FCF margin
- 18.3%
- Return on equity
- 38%
- Return on invested capital
- 18%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $5.4B
- Total debt
- $14.7B
- Net cash
- −$9.3B
- Debt / equity
- 0.54×
- Interest coverage
- 14.5×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $10.1B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +18%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $6.9B5.2% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −3.5%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $1.9B
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Uber Technologies’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $152.22 · MV $71.88 · FCF value $122.92
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 17.7% a year FY22–FY25; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $4.93 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 5, 2026. Net debt $9.3B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. We watch it daily for our three reversal signal rules while it sits in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 36 · 5 days −2.2%
The business
FCF $10.1B · Sales +12%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$10.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield7.5%
- Free-cash-flow margin18%
- Gross margin42%
- Operating margin12%
- Return on invested capital13%
- Return on equity37%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+12%
- Net debt / EBITDA1.2×
Next report
Nov 4
- DateWed Nov 4, before the open
- Consensus EPS$0.94
- Year-ago EPS$3.11
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when UBER fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on UBER or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.