QualityDipStocks / Finance · Life Insurance
MetLife MET
Not in a dip by our rules: 3% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $60.12−40%
- Market Value
- $97.52price +3%
- Off 52-wk high
- −3%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.63
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $100.02
- Fair value est.base case$60.12−39.9%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$67.70−32.3%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 5$97.52−2.5%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$100.02you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$103.57+3.5%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Financials model (residual income). Same residual-income model as the base: cost of equity 9.5% ±1 point and return on equity 7.4% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 5.4%; bull = 8.5% and 9.4%. A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, MET would need a return on equity of about 14% a year; our estimate uses 7%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much MET moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 1.9× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.63
- Volatility
- 24% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.34
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.12
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationP/E of 18.5× is 17% below its own average of 22.4× at the last 3 fiscal year-ends.
Cash returnsShare count down 4.2% in a year: $2.4B of buybacks over 12 months.
GrowthSales grew 9% to $79.4B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
Cash returnsDividend yield of 2.4% ($1.5B paid over 12 months, 44% of earnings).
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur residual-income fair value estimate is $60.12, 40% below the price.
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 21% to $4.71 in FY2025.
ProfitabilityNet margin of 4.3%, below the 21% median for the 142 Finance companies we cover.
GrowthSales grew 3.9% a year over the last three fiscal years, below the 9.3% median for the 144 Finance companies we cover.
RiskReports earnings Nov 4 (consensus EPS $2.71): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on MetLife in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Life Insurance
All fundamentals
P/E 18.5 · ROE 12% · Sales +9%
Valuation
- P/E
- 18.5×3-yr-end avg 22.4× · Finance median 13.5×
- Price / FCF
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for an insurer
- FCF yield
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for an insurer
- EV / EBITDA
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
- Price / sales
- 0.80×
- Price / book
- 2.32×
- Market cap
- $63.6Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $79.4B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +8.7%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +3.9%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $5.22
- EPS growth, last FY
- −20.7%
- Net income, 12 months
- $3.4B
- Net income growth
- −16%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
- Operating margin
- 8.3%
- Net margin
- 4.3%
- FCF margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on equity
- 12%
- Return on invested capital
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $27.3B
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
- Debt / equity
- n/adeposits/float make debt/equity not comparable for an insurer
- Interest coverage
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 2.37%$1.5B paid
- Payout ratio
- 44%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $2.4B3.8% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −4.2%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From MetLife’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $60.12 · MV $97.52
Financials model (residual income): book value $72.68 a share on Jun 30, 2026, plus the earnings above a 9.5% cost of equity. ROE 7.4%, the average of 7.3% for the trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026 and 7.4% over fiscal 2021–2025, on average common equity; payout 100% of earnings (dividends 44% + net buybacks 67%; capped at 100%), so book grows by the retained rest; the return above 9.5% fades halfway toward 9.5% over 10 years, then grows at 3% (terminal value). From the 10-Q filed Aug 6, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 53 · 5 days +1.2%
The business
FCF $15.6B · Sales +10%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$15.6B
- Free-cash-flow yield24.3%
- Return on equity13%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+10%
Next report
Nov 4
- DateWed Nov 4, after the close
- Consensus EPS$2.71
- Year-ago EPS$2.34
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when MET fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on MET or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.