QualityDipStocks / Finance · Life Insurance
Manulife Financial MFC
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 2% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $20.45−54%
- Market Value
- —
- Off 52-wk high
- −2%
- Risk vs market
- Below marketbeta 0.73
0 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $44.63
- Fair value est.base case$20.45−54.2%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$32.15−28.0%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$44.63you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$45.62+2.2%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Financials model (residual income). Same residual-income model as the base: cost of equity 9.5% ±1 point and return on equity 9.2% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 7.2%; bull = 8.5% and 11.2%. A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, MFC would need a return on equity of about 23% a year; our estimate uses 9%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much MFC moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves a bit less than the market, but its own price swings are 1.6× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.73
- Volatility
- 20% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.47
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.32
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 0 of 5
Nothing in our data makes a clear bull case right now.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur residual-income fair value estimate is $20.45, 54% below the price.
ValuationP/E of 19.1×, above the 13.5× median for the 151 Finance companies we cover.
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 8.1% in the last fiscal year, below the 17% median for the 137 Finance companies we cover.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: sales down vs the year-ago quarter.
RiskReports earnings Nov 4 (consensus EPS $0.83): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Manulife Financial in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Life Insurance
All fundamentals
P/E 19.1 · ROE 11% · Sales +7%
Valuation
- P/E
- 19.1×Finance median 13.5×
- Price / FCF
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for an insurer
- FCF yield
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for an insurer
- EV / EBITDA
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
- Price / sales
- n/aneeds total revenue: the SEC revenue tag covers only part of this company's revenue (it is under 1.5x net income)
- Price / book
- 2.12×
- Market cap
- $76.2Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- n/athe SEC revenue tag covers only part of this company's revenue (it is under 1.5x net income)
- Sales growth, 12 months
- n/aneeds total revenue: the SEC revenue tag covers only part of this company's revenue (it is under 1.5x net income)
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- n/aneeds total revenue: the SEC revenue tag covers only part of this company's revenue (it is under 1.5x net income)
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $3.07
- EPS growth, last FY
- +8.1%
- Net income, 12 months
- $4.0B
- Net income growth
- +3%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- n/aneeds total revenue: the SEC revenue tag covers only part of this company's revenue (it is under 1.5x net income)
- FCF margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on equity
- 11%
- Return on invested capital
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $19.1B
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
- Debt / equity
- n/adeposits/float make debt/equity not comparable for an insurer
- Interest coverage
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- n/ano dividend payments tagged
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $1.7B2.3% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Dec 31, 2025; balance sheet at Dec 31, 2025. From Manulife Financial’s SEC filings, reported in CAD and converted to US dollars. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $20.45
Financials model (residual income): book value $21.04 a share on Dec 31, 2025, converted from CAD at 0.7168, plus the earnings above a 9.5% cost of equity. ROE 9.2%, the average of 10.4% for the fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025 and 7.9% over fiscal 2021–2025, on average common equity; payout 100% of earnings (dividends 63% + net buybacks 46%; capped at 100%), so book grows by the retained rest; the return above 9.5% fades halfway toward 9.5% over 10 years, then grows at 3% (terminal value). From the 40-F filed Feb 11, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 55 · 5 days +0.8%
The business
FCF $30.9B · Sales −52%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$30.9B
- Free-cash-flow yield41.0%
- Return on equity13%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)−52%
Next report
Nov 4
- DateWed Nov 4, after the close
- Consensus EPS$0.83
- Year-ago EPS$0.84
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
MFC is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.