QualityDipStocks / Finance · Life Insurance
Sun Life Financial SLF
Not in a dip by our rules: 4% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $42.06−48%
- Market Value
- —
- Off 52-wk high
- −4%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.38
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $80.91
- Fair value est.base case$42.06−48.0%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$57.60−28.8%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$80.91you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$84.07+3.9%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Financials model (residual income). Same residual-income model as the base: cost of equity 9.5% ±1 point and return on equity 13.9% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 11.9%; bull = 8.5% and 15.9%. A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, SLF would need a return on equity of about 29% a year; our estimate uses 14%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much SLF moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 1.4× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.38
- Volatility
- 19% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.26
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.14
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
GrowthSales compounded 94% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 3.2% ($1.5B paid over 12 months, 58% of earnings).
GrowthSales grew 8% to $30.0B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur residual-income fair value estimate is $42.06, 48% below the price.
GrowthSales growth slowed to 8% over the last 12 months, from 94% a year over the prior three fiscal years.
ProfitabilityNet margin of 8.5%, below the 21% median for the 142 Finance companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / book of 2.6×, above the 1.8× median for the 143 Finance companies we cover.
RiskReports earnings Nov 4 (consensus EPS $1.45): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Sun Life Financial in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Life Insurance
All fundamentals
P/E 18.0 · ROE 14% · Sales +8%
Valuation
- P/E
- 18.0×Finance median 13.5×
- Price / FCF
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for an insurer
- FCF yield
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for an insurer
- EV / EBITDA
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
- Price / sales
- 1.52×
- Price / book
- 2.60×
- Market cap
- $45.8Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $30.0B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +8.0%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +93.7%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $6.15
- EPS growth, last FY
- +16.9%
- Net income, 12 months
- $2.5B
- Net income growth
- +13%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- 8.5%
- FCF margin
- 6.3%
- Return on equity
- 14%
- Return on invested capital
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $6.9B
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
- Debt / equity
- n/adeposits/float make debt/equity not comparable for an insurer
- Interest coverage
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $1.9B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +11%
- Dividend yield
- 3.23%$1.5B paid
- Payout ratio
- 58%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $1.2B2.7% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Dec 31, 2025; balance sheet at Dec 31, 2025. From Sun Life Financial’s SEC filings, reported in CAD and converted to US dollars. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $42.06
Financials model (residual income): book value $31.07 a share on Dec 31, 2025, converted from CAD at 0.7168, plus the earnings above a 9.5% cost of equity. ROE 13.9%, the average of 13.9% for the fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025 and 13.9% over fiscal 2021–2025, on average common equity; payout 100% of earnings (dividends 59% + net buybacks 49%; capped at 100%), so book grows by the retained rest; the return above 9.5% fades halfway toward 9.5% over 10 years, then grows at 3% (terminal value). From the 40-F filed Feb 12, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 57 · 5 days +2.3%
The business
FCF $4.5B · Sales +51%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$4.5B
- Free-cash-flow yield10.0%
- Return on equity14%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+51%
Next report
Nov 4
- DateWed Nov 4, after the close
- Consensus EPS$1.45
- Year-ago EPS$1.35
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when SLF fires a reversal signal
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