QualityDipStocks / Energy · Electric utilities
MGE Energy MGEE
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 11% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, 4% over its Market Value. No fair value estimate for now: its free cash flow is negative.
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- $72.39price +4%
- Off 52-wk high
- −11%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.08
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 11% below its 52-week high (Nov 5), but the business held up: revenue +6.0%, earnings per share +9.4%, net cash (cash minus debt) −3.1% of market cap since the high.
Some numbers held up (revenue +6.0%, earnings per share +9.4%, net cash (cash minus debt) −3.1% of market cap since the high), others slipped. The price is 11% below its 52-week high.
The price is 11% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 9 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$726M → $769M (+6.0%)held up
- Revenue growth rate+8.3% → +7.1% a year (−1.2 pts)about the same
- Earnings per share, 12 months$3.68 → $4.03 (+9.4%)held up
- Operating margin22.9% → 22.0% (−0.8 pts)about the same
- Shares outstanding+1.6% (more shares, each owns less)about the same
- Net cash (cash minus debt)−3.1% of market cap since the highheld up
- Stock vs its sector (Energy)stock −11%, sector median +50% since Nov 5changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −11%, revenue/EPS/FCF median +8% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/E 23.0× at the high → 18.7× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Sep 30, 2025) vs the latest filing (12 months to Jun 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
52-wk high: P/E 23.0×; 52-wk low: P/E 17.6×; now: P/E 18.7×.
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $84.47Nov 5 | $68.49Sep 24 | $75.33 |
| Implied growth | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| P/E | 23.0× | 17.6× | 18.7× |
| EV/Sales | 5.4× | 4.5× | 4.8× |
What this means: a lower P/E than at the high means you pay less for each dollar of profit than buyers did then.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
No estimate for MGEE: negative free cash flow. We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much MGEE moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 1.6× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.08
- Volatility
- 21% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.05
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.20
How it ranks
Where MGEE stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 1 of 5 measures
- Free cash flow yield−5.9% · free cash flow vs market capLowest 6%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield2.5% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 47%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+7.1% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 39%of 1,814
- Operating margin22% · of sales kept as operating profitTop 24%of 1,288
- Return on invested capital5.7% · profit per dollar of capitalLowest 28%of 838
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
MV $72.39
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
Cash returnsDividend yield of 2.5% ($70M paid over 12 months, 47% of earnings).
ProfitabilityOperating margin of 22%, above the 13% median for the 69 Energy companies we cover.
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 12% in the last fiscal year, above the −11% median for the 49 Energy companies we cover.
GrowthSales grew 1.3% a year over the last three fiscal years, above the −2.1% median for the 87 Energy companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree cash flow is negative (−$131M over the last 12 months), so there’s no cash-flow value under the price.
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 6%, below the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of −5.9%, below the 7.6% median for the 74 Energy companies we cover.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; net debt 3.2× EBITDA (limit 3×).
RiskCyclical business: one strong year of cash flow can make it look cheaper than it is.
All fundamentals
P/E 18.7 · FCF yield -5.9% · ROE 11%
Valuation
- P/E
- 18.7×Energy median 15.9×
- Price / FCF
- n/anegative free cash flow
- FCF yield
- −5.9%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 3.64×
- Price / book
- 1.94×
- Market cap
- $2.8Blisted
- Enterprise value
- $3.7B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $769M
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +7.1%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +1.3%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- EPS growth, last FY
- +11.7%
- Net income, 12 months
- $150M
- Net income growth
- +14%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 22.0%
- Net margin
- 19.5%
- FCF margin
- −21.4%
- Return on equity
- 11%
- Return on invested capital
- 6%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $17M
- Total debt
- $934M
- Net cash
- −$918M
- Debt / equity
- 0.65×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- −$164M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 2.50%$70M paid
- Payout ratio
- 47%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +2.4%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $4M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From MGE Energy’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $-0.2B · Sales +1%
- Free cash flow, 12 months−$0.2B
- Free-cash-flow yield-5.9%
- Free-cash-flow margin−28%
- Gross margin41%
- Operating margin23%
- Return on invested capital6%
- Return on equity11%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+1%
- Net debt / EBITDA3.2×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $75.33
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$68.49−9.1%
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 5$72.39−3.9%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$75.33you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$84.47+12.1%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 63 · 5 days +2.4%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 4
- DateWed Nov 4
- Consensus EPS$1.16
- Year-ago EPS$1.22
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
MGEE is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on MGE Energy in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Energy
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.