QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Hotels/Resorts
Melco Resorts & Entertainment MLCO
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 56% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen. No fair value estimate for now: the model’s result is too extreme to stand behind.
Worth knowing
- Lowest price in 5 years of weekly closes
- Down 57% from its 52-week high while revenue grew 11%
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- —
- Off 52-wk high
- −56%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.64
52-week range 7% of the way from its 52-week low to its high
Price $4.12
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
52-wk low: P/E 8.1×; now: P/E 8.9×.
| Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|
| Price | $3.73Oct 23 | $4.12 |
| Implied growth | below −30% | below −30% |
| P/E | 8.1× | 8.9× |
| P/FCF | 1.9× | 2.1× |
| EV/Sales | 1.4× | 1.4× |
What this means: a lower P/E than at the high means you pay less for each dollar of profit than buyers did then.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
Estimate unreliable for MLCO: the model gives 1399% above the price, more than we can stand behind (usually peak-cycle cash flow, heavy debt, or cash flows that include customer or loan balances). We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much MLCO moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 3.1× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.64
- Volatility
- 39% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.21
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.12
How it ranks
Where MLCO stands vs every one of the 2,467 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 1 of 5 measures
- Free cash flow yield49% · free cash flow vs market capTop 1%of 1,690
- Dividends + buybacks yield0% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 22%of 2,227
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+11% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 43%of 2,184
- Operating margin12% · of sales kept as operating profitTop 48%of 1,549
- Return on invested capital13% · profit per dollar of capitalTop 35%of 1,001
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 48.6% (price / FCF 2.1×): $802M of free cash in the last 12 months.
GrowthSales compounded 56% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
ValuationP/E of 8.9× vs a 20.1× median for the 411 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 11.6% in FY2025 from 1.7% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 35% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
GrowthSales growth slowed to 11% over the last 12 months, from 56% a year over the prior three fiscal years.
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only 1.3× over the last 12 months.
Balance sheetNet debt of $5.7B, 347% of the market cap (Dec 31, 2025).
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: no cash-flow data; ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; sales down vs the year-ago quarter; net debt 5.1× EBITDA (limit 3×).
RiskReports earnings Nov 4 (consensus EPS ($0.03)): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
All fundamentals
P/E 8.9 · FCF yield 48.6% · Sales +11%
Valuation
- P/E
- 8.9×Consumer Discretionary median 20.1×
- Price / FCF
- 2.1×
- FCF yield
- 48.6%
- EV / EBITDA
- 6.8×
- Price / sales
- 0.32×
- Price / book
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Market cap
- $1.7Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $7.4B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $5.2B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +11.3%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +56.4%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $0.15
- EPS growth, last FY
- +352.9%
- Net income, 12 months
- $185M
- Net income growth
- +325%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 11.6%
- Net margin
- 3.6%
- FCF margin
- 15.5%
- Return on equity
- n/anegative shareholder equity
- Return on invested capital
- 13%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $1.0B
- Total debt
- $6.7B
- Net cash
- −$5.7B
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 1.3×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $802M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +35%
- Dividend yield
- 0.00%$78,000 paid
- Payout ratio
- 0%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- $29M
Trailing 12 months to Dec 31, 2025; balance sheet at Dec 31, 2025. From Melco Resorts & Entertainment’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
Sales −6%
- Gross margin38%
- Operating margin10%
- Return on invested capital9%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)−6%
- Net debt / EBITDA5.1×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $4.12
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$3.73−9.5%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$4.12you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$9.39+127.9%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 48 · 5 days +6.2%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 4
- DateWed Nov 4, before the open
- Consensus EPS($0.03)
- Year-ago EPS$0.21
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
MLCO is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Melco Resorts & Entertainment in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 5:14 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Hotels/Resorts
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.