QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Hotels/Resorts
Xenia Hotels & Resorts XHR
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 4% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading near our fair value estimate, 12% over its Market Value.
Worth knowing
- Share count down 10% in 2 years
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $21.55+3%
- Market Value
- $18.80price +12%
- Off 52-wk high
- −4%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.54
52-week range 91% of the way from its 52-week low to its high
Price $20.99Fair value est. $21.55Market Value $18.80
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Near its high
The price is 4% below its 52-week high (Jul 28), but the business held up: free cash flow +29.0%, net cash (cash minus debt) +3.4% of market cap since the high, revenue growth rate +1.9 pts.
Some numbers held up (free cash flow +29.0%, net cash (cash minus debt) +3.4% of market cap since the high, revenue growth rate +1.9 pts), others slipped (earnings per share −94.9%, operating margin −2.9 pts). The price is 4% below its 52-week high.
The price is 4% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: earnings per share −94.9%, operating margin −2.9 pts.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($21.82, Jul 28) the price assumed about 8%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($12.30, Oct 31) about −1%; today about 3%. The last 3 years delivered −8%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, −8%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $21.82Jul 28 | $12.30Oct 31 | $20.99 |
| Implied growth | +8% | −1% | +3% |
| P/E | 30.3× | 21.0× | 574.6× |
| P/FCF | 20.8× | 12.9× | 15.4× |
| EV/Sales | 3.0× | 2.2× | 2.8× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, XHR’s free cash flow would need to grow about 3% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much XHR moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 2.1× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.54
- Volatility
- 27% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.25
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.12
How it ranks
Where XHR stands vs every one of the 2,467 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Not in the top quarter on any of these 6 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate3% · price below our base caseTop 45%of 1,507
- Free cash flow yield6.5% · free cash flow vs market capTop 28%of 1,690
- Dividends + buybacks yield1.9% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 42%of 2,227
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+4.2% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 27%of 2,184
- Operating margin7.6% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 39%of 1,549
- Return on invested capital2.8% · profit per dollar of capitalLowest 18%of 1,001
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $21.55 · MV $18.80 · FCF value $19.33
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 2.6% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $1.36 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Nov 3, 2026. Net debt $1.2B, not deducted.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 327% to $0.64 in FY2025.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 6.5% (price / FCF 15.4×): $125M of free cash in the last 12 months.
Cash returnsShare count down 3.1% in a year: $37M of buybacks over 12 months.
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 38% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only 1.0× over the last 12 months.
Balance sheetNet debt of $1.2B, 62% of the market cap (Sep 30, 2026).
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 3%, below the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; net debt 5.3× EBITDA (limit 3×).
ValuationTrades 11.6% above its Market Value of $18.80, the average price paid since the Jul 30 filing.
All fundamentals
FCF yield 6.5% · ROE 0% · Sales +4%
Valuation
- P/E
- n/an/m: earnings near zero (P/E above 300)
- Price / FCF
- 15.4×
- FCF yield
- 6.5%
- EV / EBITDA
- 14.8×
- Price / sales
- 1.73×
- Price / book
- 1.77×
- Market cap
- $1.9Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $3.1B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $1.1B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +4.2%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +2.6%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $0.04
- EPS growth, last FY
- +326.7%
- Net income, 12 months
- $3M
- Net income growth
- −94%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 31.3%
- Operating margin
- 7.6%
- Net margin
- 0.3%
- FCF margin
- 11.2%
- Return on equity
- 0%
- Return on invested capital
- 3%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $161M
- Total debt
- $1.4B
- Net cash
- −$1.2B
- Debt / equity
- 1.24×
- Interest coverage
- 1.0×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $125M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +38%
- Dividend yield
- 0.04%$762,000 paid
- Payout ratio
- 23%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $37M1.9% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −3.1%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $14M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Xenia Hotels & Resorts’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.1B · Sales +3%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield6.5%
- Free-cash-flow margin7%
- Gross margin26%
- Operating margin13%
- Return on invested capital5%
- Return on equity−1%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+3%
- Net debt / EBITDA5.3×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $20.99
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$12.30−41.4%
- Market Valueavg paid since Jul 30$18.80−10.4%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$20.99you are here
- Fair value est.base case$21.55+2.7%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$21.82+4.0%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 78 · 5 days +5.8%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 3
- DateTue Nov 3, before the open
- Year-ago EPS$0.23
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
XHR is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Xenia Hotels & Resorts in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 5:14 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Hotels/Resorts
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.