QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Hotels/Resorts
PENN Entertainment PENN
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 23% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, 3% over its Market Value. No fair value estimate for now: a capital-spending surge is squeezing its free cash flow.
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- $16.50price +3%
- Off 52-wk high
- −23%
- Risk vs market
- Market-likebeta 0.93
2 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 23% below its 52-week high (Jun 29), but the business held up: free cash flow −$28M → $96M, turned positive, net cash (cash minus debt) +13.6% of market cap since the high, operating margin +0.9 pts.
Some numbers held up (free cash flow −$28M → $96M, turned positive, net cash (cash minus debt) +13.6% of market cap since the high, operating margin +0.9 pts), others slipped. The price is 23% below its 52-week high.
The price is 23% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 8 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$7.1B → $7.2B (+1.3%)about the same
- Revenue growth rate+6.4% → +6.1% a year (−0.2 pts)held up
- Free cash flow, 12 months−$28M → $96M, turned positiveheld up
- Operating margin−8.8% → −7.9% (+0.9 pts)held up
- Shares outstanding+1.3% (more shares, each owns less)held up
- Net cash (cash minus debt)+13.6% of market cap since the highheld up
- Stock vs its sector (Consumer Discretionary)stock −23%, sector median +2% since Jun 29changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −23%, revenue/EPS/FCF median +1% (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Mar 31, 2026) vs the latest filing (12 months to Jun 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
Today about 10%. The last 3 years delivered 3%/yr (revenue).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 3%/yr (revenue)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $22.06Jun 29 | $11.76Feb 13 | $17.02 |
| Implied growth | n/a | n/a | +10% |
| P/FCF | — | — | 23.9× |
| EV/Sales | 0.7× | 0.6× | 0.6× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
Estimate unreliable for PENN: free cash flow is squeezed by a capital-spending surge (capex is 85% of operating cash flow over the last 12 months, vs 30% in FY2022), so a DCF on today's free cash flow would understate the business. We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much PENN moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves about in line with the market, and its own price swings are 4.2× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.93
- Volatility
- 53% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.22
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.10
How it ranks
Where PENN stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 1 of 5 measures
- Free cash flow yield4.2% · free cash flow vs market capTop 48%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield10% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 6%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+6.1% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 34%of 1,814
- Operating margin−7.9% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 7%of 1,288
- Return on invested capital−12% · profit per dollar of capitalLowest 2%of 838
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
MV $16.50
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 2 of 5
Cash returnsShare count down 8.0% in a year: $239M of buybacks over 12 months.
ValuationPrice / book of 1.2×, below the 3.2× median for the 336 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only -1.3× over the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityLost $907M over the last 12 months (net income, SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 31 points in two fiscal years, to -46% in FY2025.
Balance sheetNet debt of $1.9B, 84% of the market cap (Jun 30, 2026).
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: no positive free cash flow; ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; net debt 11.7× EBITDA (limit 3×).
All fundamentals
FCF yield 4.2% · ROE -37% · Sales +6%
Valuation
- P/E
- n/aloss over the last 12 months
- Price / FCF
- 23.9×
- FCF yield
- 4.2%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/anegative EBITDA
- Price / sales
- 0.32×
- Price / book
- 1.24×
- Market cap
- $2.3Blisted
- Enterprise value
- $4.2B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $7.2B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +6.1%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +2.8%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- −$6.19
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- −$907M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- −7.9%
- Net margin
- −12.7%
- FCF margin
- 1.3%
- Return on equity
- −37%
- Return on invested capital
- −12%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $887M
- Total debt
- $2.8B
- Net cash
- −$1.9B
- Debt / equity
- 1.51×
- Interest coverage
- -1.3×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $96M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $239M10.4% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −8.0%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $61M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From PENN Entertainment’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $-0.1B · Sales +5%
- Free cash flow, 12 months−$0.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield4.2%
- Free-cash-flow margin−1%
- Gross margin35%
- Operating margin8%
- Return on invested capital4%
- Return on equity−38%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+5%
- Net debt / EBITDA11.7×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $17.02
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$11.76−30.9%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 6$16.50−3.1%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$17.02you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$22.06+29.6%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 64 · 5 days +14.2%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 5
- DateThu Nov 5, before the open
- Consensus EPS$0.21
- Year-ago EPS($0.22)
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
PENN is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on PENN Entertainment in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Hotels/Resorts
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.