QualityDipStocks / Technology · Software
Marqeta MQ
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 8% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate, 10% over its Market Value.
Worth knowing
- Share count down 13% in 2 years
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $29.40+58%
- Market Value
- $16.85price +10%
- Off 52-wk high
- −8%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.59
52-week range 68% of the way from its 52-week low to its high
Price $18.62Fair value est. $29.40Market Value $16.85
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, MQ’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 5% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much MQ moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 3.2× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.59
- Volatility
- 41% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.18
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.05
How it ranks
Where MQ stands vs every one of the 2,467 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 4 of 5 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate58% · price below our base caseTop 20%of 1,507
- Free cash flow yield10% · free cash flow vs market capTop 13%of 1,690
- Dividends + buybacks yield11% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 6%of 2,227
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+22% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 23%of 2,184
- Operating margin−1.9% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 12%of 1,549
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $29.40 · MV $16.85 · FCF value $36.75
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew -5.8% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $1.86 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 4, 2026.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $29.40, 58% above the price.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 10.0% (price / FCF 10.0×): $198M of free cash in the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityGross margin widened to 70.0% in FY2025 from 48.7% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to −7.4% in FY2025 from −41.9% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 276% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationP/E of 191.5× vs a 33.2× median for the 254 Technology companies we cover.
ProfitabilityLoses money at the operating line: −2% operating margin over the last 12 months.
GrowthSales shrank 6% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%.
ValuationTrades 10.5% above its Market Value of $16.85, the average price paid since the Aug 4 filing.
All fundamentals
P/E 191.5 · FCF yield 10.0% · ROE 1%
Valuation
- P/E
- 191.5×Technology median 33.2×
- Price / FCF
- 10.0×
- FCF yield
- 10.0%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 2.94×
- Price / book
- 2.78×
- Market cap
- $2.0Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $677M
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +22.4%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −5.8%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- $10M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 70.0%
- Operating margin
- −1.9%
- Net margin
- 1.5%
- FCF margin
- 29.3%
- Return on equity
- 1%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $701M
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $198M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +276%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $210M10.6% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −7.4%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $94M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Marqeta’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.1B · Sales +17%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield10.0%
- Free-cash-flow margin23%
- Gross margin70%
- Operating margin2%
- Return on equity1%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+17%
- Net debt / EBITDA−40.6×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $18.62
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$15.04−19.2%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 4$16.85−9.5%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$18.62you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$20.32+9.1%
- Fair value est.base case$29.40+57.9%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 59 · 5 days +1.6%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 3
- DateTue Nov 3, after the close
- Consensus EPS$0.07
- Year-ago EPS($0.04)
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
MQ is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Marqeta in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 5:14 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Software
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.