QualityDipStocks / Technology · Software
Progress Software PRGS
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 3% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, 12% over its Market Value. No fair value estimate for now: the model’s result is too extreme to stand behind.
Worth knowing
- FCF yield 17%, top 3% of the 1322 we measure
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- $40.22price +12%
- Off 52-wk high
- −3%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.33
52-week range 93% of the way from its 52-week low to its high
Price $44.88Market Value $40.22
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Near its high
The price is 3% below its 52-week high (Oct 23), but the business held up: net cash (cash minus debt) 0.0% of market cap since the high, shares outstanding unchanged, operating margin 0.0 pts.
Some numbers held up (net cash (cash minus debt) 0.0% of market cap since the high, shares outstanding unchanged, operating margin 0.0 pts), others slipped. The price is 3% below its 52-week high.
The price is 3% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($46.45, Oct 23) the price assumed about −14%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($25.09, Apr 1) about −20%; today about −14%. The last 3 years delivered 7%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 7%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $46.45Oct 23 | $25.09Apr 1 | $44.88 |
| Implied growth | −14% | −20% | −14% |
| P/E | 20.8× | 12.6× | 20.1× |
| P/FCF | 6.0× | 4.2× | 5.8× |
| EV/Sales | 3.0× | 2.3× | 3.0× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
Estimate unreliable for PRGS: the model gives 429% above the price, more than we can stand behind (usually peak-cycle cash flow, heavy debt, or cash flows that include customer or loan balances). We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, PRGS’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 14% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much PRGS moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 4.2× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.33
- Volatility
- 54% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.08
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.02
How it ranks
Where PRGS stands vs every one of the 2,467 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 2 of 5 measures
- Free cash flow yield17% · free cash flow vs market capTop 3%of 1,690
- Dividends + buybacks yield6% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 20%of 2,227
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+6.4% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 36%of 2,184
- Operating margin18% · of sales kept as operating profitTop 30%of 1,549
- Return on invested capital8.9% · profit per dollar of capitalLowest 47%of 1,001
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
MV $40.22 · FCF value $199.47
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 17.1% (price / FCF 5.8×): $319M of free cash in the last 12 months.
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 71% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
ValuationP/E of 20.1× vs a 33.2× median for the 254 Technology companies we cover.
Cash returnsShare count down 5.1% in a year: $112M of buybacks over 12 months.
GrowthSales compounded 18% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Balance sheetDebt rose 93% to $1.4B from FY2023 to FY2025.
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only 2.7× over the last 12 months.
Balance sheetNet debt of $1.1B, 60% of the market cap (Aug 31, 2026).
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: sales down vs the year-ago quarter; net debt 3.4× EBITDA (limit 3×).
ValuationTrades 11.6% above its Market Value of $40.22, the average price paid since the Sep 30 filing.
All fundamentals
P/E 20.1 · FCF yield 17.1% · ROE 18%
Valuation
- P/E
- 20.1×Technology median 33.2×
- Price / FCF
- 5.8×
- FCF yield
- 17.1%
- EV / EBITDA
- 9.2×
- Price / sales
- 1.86×
- Price / book
- 3.51×
- Market cap
- $1.9Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $3.0B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $1000M
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +6.4%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +17.5%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $2.17
- EPS growth, last FY
- +7.8%
- Net income, 12 months
- $92M
- Net income growth
- +90%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 82.2%
- Operating margin
- 17.7%
- Net margin
- 9.2%
- FCF margin
- 31.9%
- Return on equity
- 18%
- Return on invested capital
- 9%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $114M
- Total debt
- $1.2B
- Net cash
- −$1.1B
- Debt / equity
- 2.33×
- Interest coverage
- 2.7×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $319M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +71%
- Dividend yield
- 0.03%$500,000 paid
- Payout ratio
- 1%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $112M6.0% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −5.1%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $72M
Trailing 12 months to Aug 31, 2026; balance sheet at Aug 31, 2026. From Progress Software’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.3B · Sales −2%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.3B
- Free-cash-flow yield17.1%
- Free-cash-flow margin32%
- Gross margin86%
- Operating margin22%
- Return on invested capital10%
- Return on equity18%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)−2%
- Net debt / EBITDA3.4×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $44.88
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$25.09−44.1%
- Market Valueavg paid since Sep 30$40.22−10.4%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$44.88you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$46.45+3.5%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 62 · 5 days −3.1%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
PRGS is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Progress Software in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 5:14 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Software
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.