QualityDipStocks / Real Estate · REITs
National Healthcare Properties NHP
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 12% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $6.12−59%
- Market Value
- —
- Off 52-wk high
- −12%
- Risk vs market
- —
52-week range 61% of the way from its 52-week low to its high
Price $15.09Fair value est. $6.12
2 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 12% below its 52-week high (Aug 20), but the business held up: shares outstanding unchanged, operating margin 0.0 pts, free cash flow 0.0%.
Some numbers held up (shares outstanding unchanged, operating margin 0.0 pts, free cash flow 0.0%), others slipped. The price is 12% below its 52-week high.
The price is 12% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 7 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$344M → $344M (0.0%)about the same
- Free cash flow, 12 months$24M → $24M (0.0%)held up
- Operating margin3.2% → 3.2% (0.0 pts)held up
- Shares outstanding0.0% (unchanged)held up
- Stock vs its sector (Real Estate)stock −12%, sector median −6% since Aug 20held up
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −12%, revenue/EPS/FCF median 0% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 44.2× at the high → 39.1× now (shown, not scored)
No new report since the high (Aug 20, 2026): the business numbers are the same as then, so this read is capped at 65. Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($17.08, Aug 20) the price assumed about 22%/yr free-cash-flow growth; today about 19%. The last 3 years delivered 1%/yr (revenue).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 1%/yr (revenue)
| High | Now | |
|---|---|---|
| Price | $17.08Aug 20 | $15.09 |
| Implied growth | +22% | +19% |
| P/FCF | 44.2× | 39.1× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, NHP’s free cash flow would need to grow about 19% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Valuation details
DCF $6.12 · FCF value $17.15
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 0.6% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $0.39 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 6, 2026.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 2 of 5
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 1.0% in FY2025 from −1.4% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ValuationPrice / book of 0.9×, below the 1.8× median for the 105 Real Estate companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $6.12, 59% below the price.
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only 0.2× over the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityLost $58M over the last 12 months (net income, SEC filings).
GrowthSales grew only 0.6% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; net debt 5.7× EBITDA (limit 3×).
All fundamentals
FCF yield 2.6% · ROE -7% · Sales −1%
Valuation
- P/E
- n/aloss over the last 12 months
- Price / FCF
- 39.1×
- FCF yield
- 2.6%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 2.70×
- Price / book
- 0.88×
- Market cap
- $929Mprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $344M
- Sales growth, 12 months
- −1.2%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +0.6%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- −$1.83
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- −$58M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 37.9%
- Operating margin
- 3.2%
- Net margin
- −16.7%
- FCF margin
- 6.9%
- Return on equity
- −7%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $246M
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 0.2×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $24M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- n/ano dividend payments tagged
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- $5M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From National Healthcare Properties’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.1B · Sales +3%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield2.6%
- Free-cash-flow margin14%
- Gross margin38%
- Operating margin10%
- Return on invested capital2%
- Return on equity−5%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+3%
- Net debt / EBITDA5.7×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $15.09
- Fair value est.base case$6.12−59.5%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$12.00−20.5%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$15.09you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$17.08+13.2%
Momentum & 52-week range
5 days −1.2%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 4
- DateWed Nov 4, after the close
- Consensus EPS$0.17
- Year-ago EPSN/A
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
NHP is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on National Healthcare Properties in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 5:14 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in REITs
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.