QualityDipStocks / Technology · Software & internet services
NIQ Global Intelligence NIQ
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 3% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate, 10% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $45.18+127%
- Market Value
- $18.05price +10%
- Off 52-wk high
- −3%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.47
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Near its high
The price is 3% below its 52-week high (Oct 29), but the business held up: net cash (cash minus debt) 0.0% of market cap since the high, shares outstanding unchanged, operating margin 0.0 pts.
Some numbers held up (net cash (cash minus debt) 0.0% of market cap since the high, shares outstanding unchanged, operating margin 0.0 pts), others slipped. The price is 3% below its 52-week high.
The price is 3% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($20.37, Oct 29) the price assumed about −2%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($7.97, Jun 25) about −12%; today about −3%. The last 3 years delivered 12%/yr (revenue).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 12%/yr (revenue)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $20.37Oct 29 | $7.97Jun 25 | $19.86 |
| Implied growth | −2% | −12% | −3% |
| P/FCF | 11.9× | 6.6× | 11.6× |
| EV/Sales | 2.1× | 1.3× | 2.0× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 12.1% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 10.1%; bull = 8.5% and 14.1% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, NIQ’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 3% a year for five years; our estimate uses 12%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much NIQ moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 5.4× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.47
- Volatility
- 70% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.09
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.02
How it ranks
Where NIQ stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 2 of 6 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate127% · price below our base caseTop 5%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield8.6% · free cash flow vs market capTop 15%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield0% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 1%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+8.9% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 47%of 1,814
- Operating margin1.9% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 16%of 1,288
- Return on invested capital1.7% · profit per dollar of capitalLowest 13%of 838
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $45.18 · MV $18.05 · FCF value $42.92
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 12.1% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 12.1% a year FY23–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $1.72 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 10, 2026. Net debt $3.0B, not deducted.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 8.6% (price / FCF 11.6×): $506M of free cash in the last 12 months.
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $45.18, 127% above the price (cyclical or peak cash flow, so treat with care).
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 2.0% in FY2025 from −3.3% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
GrowthSales grew 9% to $4.4B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 12.4×, below the 18.2× median for the 119 Technology companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityLost $351M over the last 12 months (net income, SEC filings).
Cash returnsShare count up 20.4% in a year: existing holders are being diluted.
Balance sheetNet debt of $3.1B, 53% of the market cap (Jun 30, 2026).
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: no return-on-capital data; no sales-growth data; debt load unclear or high.
ValuationTrades 10.0% above its Market Value of $18.05, the average price paid since the Aug 10 filing.
All fundamentals
FCF yield 8.6% · ROE -65% · Sales +9%
Valuation
- P/E
- n/aloss over the last 12 months
- Price / FCF
- 11.6×
- FCF yield
- 8.6%
- EV / EBITDA
- 12.4×
- Price / sales
- 1.34×
- Price / book
- 6.46×
- Market cap
- $5.9Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $9.0B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $4.4B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +8.9%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +12.1%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- −$1.23
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- −$351M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 1.9%
- Net margin
- −8.0%
- FCF margin
- 11.5%
- Return on equity
- −65%
- Return on invested capital
- 2%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $417M
- Total debt
- $3.5B
- Net cash
- −$3.1B
- Debt / equity
- 3.91×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $506M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +20.4%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $78M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From NIQ Global Intelligence’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.5B
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.5B
- Free-cash-flow yield8.6%
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $19.86
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$7.97−59.9%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 10$18.05−9.1%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$19.86you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$20.37+2.6%
- Fair value est.base case$45.18+127.5%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 63 · 5 days −0.3%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 12
- DateThu Nov 12, before the open
- Consensus EPS$0.21
- Year-ago EPS$0.03
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
NIQ is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on NIQ Global Intelligence in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Software & internet services
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.