QualityDipStocks / Energy · Oil and Gas Field Machinery
NOV NOV
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 11% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $14.48−25%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −11%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.66
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $19.29
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$14.38−25.5%
- Fair value est.base case$14.48−24.9%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$19.29you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$21.71+12.5%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 6.5% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 4.5%; bull = 8.5% and 8.5% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, NOV’s free cash flow would need to grow about 12% a year for five years; our estimate uses 7%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much NOV moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 2.8× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.66
- Volatility
- 36% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.24
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.20
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
Cash returnsShare count down 3.0% in a year: $230M of buybacks over 12 months.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 2.2% ($156M paid over 12 months).
GrowthSales grew 6.5% a year over the last three fiscal years, above the −7.3% median for the 44 Energy companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / book of 1.1×, below the 2.5× median for the 42 Energy companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $14.48, 25% below the price.
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 76% to $0.39 in FY2025.
ValuationP/E of 48.6× vs a 16.2× median for the 43 Energy companies we cover.
Cash returnsFree cash flow fell 69% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on NOV in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Energy
All fundamentals
P/E 48.6 · FCF yield 3.9% · ROE 2%
Valuation
- P/E
- 48.6×Energy median 16.2×
- Price / FCF
- 25.7×
- FCF yield
- 3.9%
- EV / EBITDA
- 9.0×
- Price / sales
- 0.80×
- Price / book
- 1.11×
- Market cap
- $6.9Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $7.6B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $8.7B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- −1.0%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +6.5%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $0.41
- EPS growth, last FY
- −75.6%
- Net income, 12 months
- $143M
- Net income growth
- −63%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 20.7%
- Operating margin
- 5.5%
- Net margin
- 1.6%
- FCF margin
- 3.1%
- Return on equity
- 2%
- Return on invested capital
- 4%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $1.1B
- Total debt
- $1.7B
- Net cash
- −$649M
- Debt / equity
- 0.27×
- Interest coverage
- 5.5×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $270M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −69%
- Dividend yield
- 2.25%$156M paid
- Payout ratio
- 109%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $230M3.3% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −3.0%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $72M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From NOV’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $14.48 · FCF value $21.67
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 6.5% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 6.5% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $0.75 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 28, 2026. Net debt $649M, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 48 · 5 days −2.4%
The business
FCF $0.3B · Sales +2%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.3B
- Free-cash-flow yield4.5%
- Free-cash-flow margin4%
- Gross margin21%
- Operating margin6%
- Return on invested capital6%
- Return on equity2%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+2%
- Net debt / EBITDA1.3×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
NOV is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.