QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Hotels/Resorts
Hilton Grand Vacations HGV
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 25% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen. No fair value estimate for now: the model’s result is too extreme to stand behind.
Worth knowing
- FCF yield 15%, top 4% of the 1145 we measure
- Share count down 18% in 2 years
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −25%
- Risk vs market
- Market-likebeta 0.98
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 25% below its 52-week high (Jun 26), but the business held up: revenue +14.5%, revenue growth rate +14.5 pts, earnings per share +170.8%.
Some numbers held up (revenue +14.5%, revenue growth rate +14.5 pts, earnings per share +170.8%), others slipped. The price is 25% below its 52-week high.
The price is 25% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 9 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$5.2B → $5.9B (+14.5%)held up
- Revenue growth rate+4.2% → +18.8% a year (+14.5 pts)held up
- Earnings per share, 12 months$1.96 → $5.31 (+170.8%)held up
- Free cash flow, 12 months$328M → $473M (+44.2%)held up
- Shares outstanding−6.1% (fewer shares, each owns more)held up
- Net cash (cash minus debt)−5.0% of market cap since the highabout the same
- Stock vs its sector (Consumer Discretionary)stock −25%, sector median +2% since Jun 26changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −25%, revenue/EPS/FCF median +44% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 14.0× at the high → 6.8× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Mar 31, 2026) vs the latest filing (12 months to Sep 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($54.69, Jun 26) the price assumed about 1%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($34.05, Oct 5) about −12%; today about −12%. The last 3 years delivered −31%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, −31%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $54.69Jun 26 | $34.05Oct 5 | $41.00 |
| Implied growth | +1% | −12% | −12% |
| P/E | 27.9× | 18.2× | 7.7× |
| P/FCF | 14.0× | 6.7× | 6.8× |
| EV/Sales | 1.8× | 1.4× | 1.3× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
Estimate unreliable for HGV: the model gives 236% above the price, more than we can stand behind (usually peak-cycle cash flow, heavy debt, or cash flows that include customer or loan balances). We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, HGV’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 12% a year for five years; our estimate uses 10%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much HGV moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves about in line with the market, and its own price swings are 3.1× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.98
- Volatility
- 40% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.32
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.15
How it ranks
Where HGV stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 2 of 3 measures
- Free cash flow yield15% · free cash flow vs market capTop 3%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield17% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 1%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+19% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 28%of 1,814
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
FCF value $148.79
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 14.7% (price / FCF 6.8×): $473M of free cash in the last 12 months.
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 98% to $0.89 in FY2025.
ValuationP/E of 7.7× vs a 20.7× median for the 341 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 173% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
Cash returnsShare count down 12.8% in a year: $560M of buybacks over 12 months.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Balance sheetNet debt of $4.7B, 145% of the market cap (Sep 30, 2026).
Balance sheetDebt rose 49% to $4.5B from FY2023 to FY2025.
Balance sheetDebt is 3.7× shareholders’ equity.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 9 points in two fiscal years, to 6% in FY2025.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: net debt 5.9× EBITDA (limit 3×).
All fundamentals
P/E 7.7 · FCF yield 14.7% · ROE 31%
Valuation
- P/E
- 7.7×Consumer Discretionary median 20.7×
- Price / FCF
- 6.8×
- FCF yield
- 14.7%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 0.54×
- Price / book
- 2.47×
- Market cap
- $3.2Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $7.9B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $5.9B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +18.8%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +9.6%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $5.07
- EPS growth, last FY
- +97.8%
- Net income, 12 months
- $417M
- Net income growth
- n/an/m: earnings a year ago near zero
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- 7.0%
- FCF margin
- 8.0%
- Return on equity
- 31%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $227M
- Total debt
- $4.9B
- Net cash
- −$4.7B
- Debt / equity
- 3.74×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $473M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +173%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $560M17.4% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −12.8%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $66M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Hilton Grand Vacations’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.5B · Sales +55%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.5B
- Free-cash-flow yield14.7%
- Free-cash-flow margin8%
- Gross margin29%
- Operating margin28%
- Return on invested capital13%
- Return on equity29%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+55%
- Net debt / EBITDA5.9×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $41.00
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$34.05−17.0%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$41.00you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$54.69+33.4%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 71 · 5 days +14.8%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
HGV is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Hilton Grand Vacations in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Hotels/Resorts
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.