QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Food Distributors
Performance Food Group Company PFGC
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 15% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $121.80+23%
- Market Value
- $97.44price +2%
- Off 52-wk high
- −15%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.38
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $99.05
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$81.03−18.2%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 12$97.44−1.6%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$99.05you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$116.65+17.8%
- Fair value est.base case$121.80+23.0%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 5.8% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 3.8%; bull = 8.5% and 7.8% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, PFGC’s free cash flow would need to grow about 2% a year for five years; our estimate uses 6%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much PFGC moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 2.3× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.38
- Volatility
- 29% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.16
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.05
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $121.80, 23% above the price.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 6.6% (price / FCF 15.1×): $1.0B of free cash in the last 12 months.
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 46% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
ValuationPrice / book of 3.2×, below the 4.9× median for the 151 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Balance sheetDebt rose 57% to $5.0B from FY2024 to FY2026.
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only 2.1× over the last 12 months.
ValuationP/E of 43.3× vs a 20.9× median for the 169 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity is only 8% over the last 12 months.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; net debt 4.5× EBITDA (limit 3×).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Performance Food Group Company in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Food Distributors
All fundamentals
P/E 43.3 · FCF yield 6.6% · ROE 8%
Valuation
- P/E
- 43.3×Consumer Discretionary median 20.9×
- Price / FCF
- 15.1×
- FCF yield
- 6.6%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 0.23×
- Price / book
- 3.17×
- Market cap
- $15.6Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $67.8B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +7.2%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +5.8%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $2.29
- EPS growth, last FY
- +5.0%
- Net income, 12 months
- $359M
- Net income growth
- +6%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 11.9%
- Operating margin
- 1.3%
- Net margin
- 0.5%
- FCF margin
- 1.5%
- Return on equity
- 8%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Total debt
- $5.0B
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- 1.02×
- Interest coverage
- 2.1×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $1.0B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +46%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $2M0.0% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- +0.3%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $52M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 27, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 27, 2026. From Performance Food Group Company’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $121.80 · MV $97.44 · FCF value $114.16
Assumes 5.8% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 5.8% a year FY23–FY26), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $6.56 a share (fiscal year to Jun 27, 2026), from the 10-K filed Aug 12, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 60 · 5 days +4.6%
The business
FCF $0.7B · Sales +7%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.7B
- Free-cash-flow yield4.6%
- Free-cash-flow margin1%
- Gross margin13%
- Operating margin2%
- Return on invested capital9%
- Return on equity8%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+7%
- Net debt / EBITDA4.5×
Next report
Nov 4
- DateWed Nov 4, before the open
- Consensus EPS$1.26
- Year-ago EPS$1.18
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
PFGC is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.