QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Industrial machinery
Stanley Black & Decker SWK
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 1% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate, 9% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $135.60+31%
- Market Value
- $95.22price +9%
- Off 52-wk high
- −1%
- Risk vs market
- Above marketbeta 1.37
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $103.44
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$62.12−39.9%
- Market Valueavg paid since Jul 29$95.22−7.9%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$103.44you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$104.00+0.5%
- Fair value est.base case$135.60+31.1%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, SWK’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 2% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much SWK moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings more than the market, and its own price swings are 2.8× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.37
- Volatility
- 37% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.48
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.35
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $135.60, 31% above the price.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 8.3% (price / FCF 12.1×): $1.3B of free cash in the last 12 months.
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 212% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 36% to $2.65 in FY2026.
ProfitabilityGross margin widened to 30.3% in FY2026 from 24.9% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Top bearish points 5 of 5
GrowthSales shrank 4% a year from FY2022 to FY2026.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity is only 7% over the last 12 months.
GrowthSales grew 0.6% over the last 12 months, below the 7.0% median for the 175 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%.
ValuationTrades 8.6% above its Market Value of $95.22, the average price paid since the Jul 29 filing.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Stanley Black & Decker in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Industrial machinery
All fundamentals
P/E 25.1 · FCF yield 8.3% · ROE 7%
Valuation
- P/E
- 25.1×Consumer Discretionary median 20.9×
- Price / FCF
- 12.1×
- FCF yield
- 8.3%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 1.02×
- Price / book
- 1.74×
- Market cap
- $15.6Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $19.7B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $15.2B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +0.6%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −3.7%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $4.09
- EPS growth, last FY
- +35.9%
- Net income, 12 months
- $620M
- Net income growth
- +32%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 31.9%
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- 4.1%
- FCF margin
- 8.5%
- Return on equity
- 7%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $592M
- Total debt
- $4.8B
- Net cash
- −$4.2B
- Debt / equity
- 0.53×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $1.3B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +212%
- Dividend yield
- 3.22%$502M paid
- Payout ratio
- 81%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $275M1.8% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −0.7%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $82M
Trailing 12 months to Jul 4, 2026; balance sheet at Jul 4, 2026. From Stanley Black & Decker’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $135.60 · MV $95.22 · FCF value $235.39
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew -3.7% a year FY22–FY26; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $8.56 a share (trailing 12 months to Jul 4, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Jul 29, 2026. Net debt $4.2B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 75 · 5 days +4.2%
The business
FCF $1.4B · Sales 0%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$1.4B
- Free-cash-flow yield9.1%
- Free-cash-flow margin9%
- Gross margin32%
- Operating margin8%
- Return on invested capital8%
- Return on equity7%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)0%
- Net debt / EBITDA2.6×
Next report
Nov 4
- DateWed Nov 4, before the open
- Consensus EPS$1.54
- Year-ago EPS$1.43
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
SWK is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.