QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Food Distributors
Domino's Pizza DPZ
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 28% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading near our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $304.19−3%
- Market Value
- $306.58price +2%
- Off 52-wk high
- −28%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.08
5 bullish · 4 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $313.71
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$283.03−9.8%
- Fair value est.base case$304.19−3.0%
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 13$306.58−2.3%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$313.71you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$438.42+39.8%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, DPZ’s free cash flow would need to grow about 4% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much DPZ moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 2.4× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.08
- Volatility
- 31% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.03
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.12
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 111%, above the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
Balance sheetPaid down debt: $15M at FY2025, 100% less than at FY2023.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 6.1% (price / FCF 16.3×): $636M of free cash in the last 12 months.
Cash returnsShare count down 3.0% in a year: $388M of buybacks over 12 months.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 2.4% ($252M paid over 12 months, 41% of earnings).
Top bearish points 4 of 5
Balance sheetNet debt of $4.7B, 45% of the market cap (Sep 6, 2026).
GrowthSales grew only 2.9% a year from FY2023 to FY2025.
GrowthSales grew 4.5% over the last 12 months, below the 7.0% median for the 175 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: net debt 4.7× EBITDA (limit 3×).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Domino's Pizza in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Food Distributors
All fundamentals
P/E 17.0 · FCF yield 6.1% · Sales +5%
Valuation
- P/E
- 17.0×Consumer Discretionary median 20.9×
- Price / FCF
- 16.3×
- FCF yield
- 6.1%
- EV / EBITDA
- 13.8×
- Price / sales
- 2.05×
- Price / book
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Market cap
- $10.4Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $15.0B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $5.1B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +4.5%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +2.9%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $18.15
- EPS growth, last FY
- +5.3%
- Net income, 12 months
- $609M
- Net income growth
- +3%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 40.0%
- Operating margin
- 19.7%
- Net margin
- 12.0%
- FCF margin
- 12.5%
- Return on equity
- n/anegative shareholder equity
- Return on invested capital
- 111%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $229M
- Total debt
- $4.9B
- Net cash
- −$4.7B
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 5.0×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $636M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +1%
- Dividend yield
- 2.42%$252M paid
- Payout ratio
- 41%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $388M3.7% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −3.0%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $44M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 6, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 6, 2026. From Domino's Pizza’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $304.19 · MV $306.58 · FCF value $434.02
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 2.9% a year FY23–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $19.20 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 6, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 13, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 54 · 5 days 0.0%
The business
FCF $0.6B · Sales +3%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.6B
- Free-cash-flow yield5.5%
- Free-cash-flow margin11%
- Gross margin29%
- Operating margin20%
- Return on invested capital87%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+3%
- Net debt / EBITDA4.7×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
DPZ is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.