QualityDipStocks / Finance · Property-Casualty Insurers
Progressive PGR
Not in a dip: trading near its 52-week high.
A quality company trading near our fair value estimate, 4% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $211.50−9%
- Market Value
- $221.48price +4%
- Off 52-wk high
- −2%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.50
5 bullish · 3 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $231.28
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$190.40−17.7%
- Fair value est.base case$211.50−8.6%
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 14$221.48−4.2%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$231.28you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$236.36+2.2%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Financials model (residual income). Same residual-income model as the base: cost of equity 9.5% ±1 point and return on equity 29.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 27.0%; bull = 8.5% and 31.0%. A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, PGR would need a return on equity of about 31% a year; our estimate uses 29%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much PGR moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 2.1× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.50
- Volatility
- 27% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.24
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.36
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationP/E of 11.5× is 35% below its own average of 17.6× at the last 3 fiscal year-ends.
GrowthSales compounded 21% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 6.1% ($8.1B paid over 12 months, 70% of earnings).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 35% over the last 12 months, up 18 points in two years.
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 3 of 5
GrowthSales growth slowed to 10% over the last 12 months, from 21% a year over the prior three fiscal years.
ValuationPrice / book of 3.9×, above the 1.8× median for the 143 Finance companies we cover.
ProfitabilityNet margin of 13%, below the 21% median for the 142 Finance companies we cover.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Progressive in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Property-Casualty Insurers
All fundamentals
P/E 11.5 · ROE 35% · Sales +10%
Valuation
- P/E
- 11.5×3-yr-end avg 17.6× · Finance median 13.5×
- Price / FCF
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for an insurer
- FCF yield
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for an insurer
- EV / EBITDA
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
- Price / sales
- 1.48×
- Price / book
- 3.92×
- Market cap
- $134Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $91.1B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +10.5%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +20.9%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $19.93
- EPS growth, last FY
- +33.5%
- Net income, 12 months
- $11.7B
- Net income growth
- +12%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- 12.8%
- FCF margin
- 17.5%
- Return on equity
- 35%
- Return on invested capital
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $2.2B
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
- Debt / equity
- n/adeposits/float make debt/equity not comparable for an insurer
- Interest coverage
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $16.0B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −3%
- Dividend yield
- 6.06%$8.1B paid
- Payout ratio
- 70%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- −0.6%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Progressive’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $211.50 · MV $221.48
Financials model (residual income): book value $60.51 a share on Jun 30, 2026, plus the earnings above a 9.5% cost of equity. ROE 29.0%, the average of 34.5% for the trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026 and 23.6% over fiscal 2021–2025, on average common equity; payout 70% of earnings (dividends 70%), so book grows by the retained rest; the return above 9.5% fades halfway toward 9.5% over 10 years, then grows at 3% (terminal value). From the 10-Q filed Aug 3, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 65 · 5 days +1.4%
The business
FCF $16.5B · Sales +7%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$16.5B
- Free-cash-flow yield12.3%
- Return on equity35%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+7%
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when PGR fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on PGR or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.